Just what is going on in the Ukraine? Including vote now, for politicians among us;)

[spacehunt]

With all the people leaving their respective countries to go join ISIS atm, personally I don't see how Russians leaving theirs to join the rebels is any different. Least they're not beheading people

[V2200]

ermm, he's not raving.

I know better.

[RegisterMe]

In that case I'd love you to explain, even if only so that I get another perspective.

There are reports in the western media today that Russian troops have actually entered (invaded? your choice of word....) souther Ukraine. Although it's also said that they might be "holidaying there".

(not that I am that credulous)

[V2200]

Yes, primer-minister of DNR has declared, that among them there are former and operative Russian military men who spend there their holiday. Invasion were not.

[fiksal]

ermm, he's not raving.

I know better.

Rave parties are quite fun, provided you brought enough booze with ya.
The good old days.

[Warenwolf]

That
- overnight, every Ukrainian turned to fascism, swasticas and all,
- there Malaysian Air was shot by mistake, by Ukrainians, because Ukrainian military was unable to check its own airspace and in reality wanted to shoot down Putin's plane, that in reality was there somewhere on the planet Earth. But that's okay, because separatists avenged those by shooting down a Ukrainian fighter plane.
- in addition to that the plane was full with corpses already [1]
- that United States controls Europe already [2] and wants to control Russia next, the only free country left

Pretty much what I have heard from russian colleagues on my work place.

except that shooting of mh17 is blamed on americans (in order to put blame on russia).

[fiksal]

Pretty much what I have heard from russian colleagues on my work place.

except that shooting of mh17 is blamed on americans (in order to put blame on russia).

Maybe. I think Russian news are getting their conspiracies mixed up. Last I read they were blaming Ukraine.
But yes, the Ukraine (and all of Europe) are viewed as puppet states of USA. So the entire conflict is blamed on US. Russia has done nothing wrong.

[Jumee]

well the rebel leader has said that there are over 4000 russian "volunteers" fighting in ukraine among whom are actual soldiers, talk about a bad vacation

P.S why would he openly admit such a thing anyway?

[fiksal]

well the rebel leader has said that there are over 4000 russian "volunteers" fighting in ukraine among whom are actual soldiers, talk about a bad vacation

P.S why would he openly admit such a thing anyway?

The separatists aren't the smartest pickles in a jar.

Plus that fact is only news to Western media. Russian media internally have already reported on the flow of the so-called volunteers, and some of them coming back home dead. (though the last part I dont think is mentioned often)

No-one calls them active duty though, and those aren't the actual Russian army. So it's possible they aren't, I am willing to give that benefit of the doubt. For now.

But there's no question that they are Russian, that they are militia and that someone gives them weapons to go fight in Ukraine.

CNN is saying there are Russian tanks too. I havent attempted to trace that in anyway. So who knows. I won't be too surprised I suppose.

[Dragoongfa]

well the rebel leader has said that there are over 4000 russian "volunteers" fighting in ukraine among whom are actual soldiers, talk about a bad vacation

P.S why would he openly admit such a thing anyway?

Because there is no negative impact to it anymore.

The west, i.e. the US and the EU are already on the anti Russian camp, financial sanctions have flown back and forth (the Russians have stopped the imports of European food products as an example) and there is no possibility that of the US or the EU taking things any further.

The Ukrainian populace is so demoralized that this admittance will only lower their morale instead of boosting it. It further shows how strong the rebels are and how weak the Ukrainian military is.

The Ukrainian military is currently retreating after taking heavy losses, even with the help of a few thousands of trained Russians and the smuggling of second rate heavy weaponry (The Russians are accused of giving them certain heavy weapons but those weapons are second rate soviet remnants when compared with what the Russian army uses) the fact that the armed forces of Ukraine could not overcome the rebels is an eye opener of how weak the Ukrainian military really is.

Geopolitics 101: Everything comes down to raw force be it either economic or military.

Ukraine is weak on both ends, their economy is in shambles, their army is a joke and the rest of the world needs the Russian energy reserves. Both the EU and the Ukraine will need Russian energy in the coming winter.

I expect a Russian diplomatic victory in the coming months

TL,DR version:

The rebels are in a position of military dominance and time is ticking against the Ukrainian government.

They believe they are about to win and there is no sign of them being wrong.

[fiksal]

They believe they are about to win and there is no sign of them being wrong.

Agreed. And Putin's popularity is growing, among the people who are free to speak out.

[imperium3]

TL,DR version:

The rebels are in a position of military dominance and time is ticking against the Ukrainian government.

They believe they are about to win and there is no sign of them being wrong.

That's interesting. I stopped following this a while ago, and at that point it seemed to me that the army was winning, once it got its act in gear, and taking many rebel towns and cities. Was that the case and those gains have been reversed, or were those victories all propaganda to start with?

If it is the case that the Ukrainian army is beaten and on the retreat, it would explain why we are suddenly hearing a lot more noises about Russian troops. The Ukrainians would want more Western support.

[Olterin]

You know, the funny thing is that the noises about Russian army units have suddenly reemerged in western media, but have been there all along in Ukrainian media. It is as if someone is suddenly paying attention, now that the course of war has been reversed (which was a very sudden development, mind - and if you look further into it you might notice reports in western media of advanced Russian military hardware being sighted, which would strongly outclass Soviet-era hardware Ukrainian troops have) - and yes I use the word "war" here very consciously. The veil of plausible deniability is finally slowly falling, and I believe it is because Russia believes (and probably rightfully so) that no-one is going to stop them (and sanctions will be laughed at).

TL;DR: Ukrainian army appeared to have the upper hand until two days ago (at this point both the rebels and government troops had roughly the same level of hardware), when a sudden reversal of events took place. This strongly suggests outside involvement.

[Dragoongfa]

What the rebels did was to give ground in order to attain better defensive positions and to over extend the Ukrainian military.

Disclaimer: This is my personal understanding from various sources in military forums I frequent, it comes from (mostly) pro Russian, (some) Pro Ukrainian and (a handful) relatively neutral sources.

Initially the rebels were woefully disorganized and ill disciplined, not wanting to even consider giving ground to the military. This changed after the initial setbacks and as it has already been mentioned there are plenty of reservists and war veterans amongst the rebels, they know how an army should operate and with the advent of Russian support they turned the ragtag militias into a relatively coherent armed force.

It didn't help that many Ukrainian far right extremists volunteered for the armed operations against the rebels. This bolstered the resolve of the rebels and there are many reports of war crimes committed by certain Ukrainian military units. War crimes that the rebels have made sure to publish amongst their ranks; even returning the favor to any prisoners they capture from said military units.

The Ukrainian military on the other hand forgot one of the basic pillars of military operations: An army marches on its stomach.

They managed to field an impressive number of units and personnel against the rebels, outnumbering the rebel militias by a fair margin. The problem is that the Ukrainian military was a joke and a ghost for years, there were no trained personnel for logistics support and no planning on how to supply the units they sent against the rebels.

Worse still, the commanders of said units were not military officers. They were men assigned merely for their loyalties and ties with the new government instead of trained military officers. They didn't know how to lead a modern military operation and the men they led paid with their lives.

Regiments did not receive food for days, their soldiers having to loot food from civilians in order to sustain themselves. They didn't have medical support and the supplying of ammunition was at best rare.

Their commanders did not understand the basic principle of force dispersal, entire battalions were decimated by a single missile artillery barrage by the rebels. The constant orders of launching attacks led to the surrounding and annihilation of several large units.

Worse they never even gave any orders about the destruction of abandoned equipment. This move alone strengthened the rebel forces immensely. From various sources I have seen the Ukrainian military has lost 400 tanks and armored vehicles in this conflict, more than half of them were abandoned due to mechanical failures, running out of gas and when their crews surrendered to the rebels.

EDIT: Added disclaimer.

[Morkonan]

Dragoonfa - Thanks for that breakdown. It's not surprising. Considering that Ukraine was already in a state of disarray before they began operations into Eastern Ukraine, I'm not suprised that they've been fighting against their own problems as much as they have been fighting against the Rebels. I think it's also worth noting that, as with Crimea, the Rebel military leadership has been bolstered by professionals from Russia. One nod in one direction, one knowledgeable commander, one order to attack or withdraw at the appropriate moment can turn the tide of battle.

This, somewhat, "just in"-

Home> International
'Russian Invasion' of Ukraine Prompts UN Emergency Meeting

Ukraine’s president today declared that a "Russian invasion" of his country was underway and the United Nations' Security Council called an emergency session to discuss the latest crisis involving allegations of Russia's overt support for Ukrainian rebels. ...

...Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Polish parliament that NATO had concrete proof of Russian troops operating on the territory of Ukraine. In a phone call early today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded an explanation from Russian President Vladimir Putin. French President Francois Hollande called a news conference this morning saying that Russian incursions into Ukraine were “intolerable.” ...

... The prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, told Russian TV that 3,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers were supporting the rebels.

“We have never hidden from anyone that there are many Russians amongst us,” he said. “Without their help, we would have struggled and it would have been more difficult to fight.”

In reaction to Russia’s continuing military build-up on NATO’s eastern flank, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced the preparation of a Readiness Action Plan. In an interview with German Suedduetsche Zeitung, Rasmussen said NATO would form a quick reaction force to counter a possible Russian threat to countries on NATO’s eastern border. ...

,,, Ukrainian PM Arseny Yatseniuk appealed to the United Nations to call a Security Council meeting in response to "growing military threat from Russia."


“Putin started a war in Europe,” he said.

Another nice "set-stage" piece by Russia. Following on their success and the lack of any substantive reaction by Europe/NATO/US, Russia grows emboldened and begins to directly support Ukrainian rebel forces. Instead of flatly denying such an allegation, which would signal that Russia was not yet fully ready to begin operations in Ukraine, the Russian Ambassador stated:"

Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin offered a spirited defense, saying Kiev "is waging war against its own people." ...

This "humanitarian appeal" attempts to prepare the way for a "Righteous Cause" regarding Russia's military invasion of Ukraine.

I have little doubt that if the UN or NATO fails to react in a meaningful manner to halt this aggression, those 20,000+ troops waiting on the border will follow their "Expeditionary Force" fully into Ukraine. Russia will continue biting off pieces of Ukraine until there is no "Ukraine" left.

Not "World War III", of course, but the result could be as about as close to it as we would sanely care to come. This is where ambassadors and diplomats get to try to stop a war... But, I'm not confident that the current US President is going to be willing to carry a big enough stick in order to dissuade Russia/Putin from undertaking further aggressive acquisitions in the region.

[Scarecrow]

Once again here we go with "blame Obama".

I certainly think that the Europeans should be the ones spearheading anything against this advance. If they want any help we will be more than willing to help out.

But to do it for them with no commitment on their part is not a smart thing for us to do.

[fiksal]

Once again here we go with "blame Obama".

Hm, what should US do? What does any country need to do?

What should Russians do?

One thing I got from people in Russia, those who are quietly disagreeing with Putin's regime is - that they feel they have no power to affect anything at all.
Putin will do what Putin will want to do, regardless of what Russians think.

And at the end the sanctions will hurt the people who fear to speak up against the regime.

[Timsup2nothin]

Putin is gonna do what Putin needs to do, which thus far has been pretty much what he said he would do.

Russia cannot deal with a NATO base in Crimea. Putin pointed that out. The US invested five billion dollars in 'making friends' with Kiev. The European Union invested untold amounts in making friends with Kiev. The government in Kiev started making low 'ooooooh NATO' moaning sounds. Russia put a stop to it, just like they said they would.

Russia is doing exactly what the US did when the USSR tried to put missiles in Cuba...they are saying no and they mean it. When a country is as heavily armed as Russia it is really best not to threaten them.

[felter]

When a country is as heavily armed as Russia it is really best not to threaten them.

No that is when you stand up to them, because if you don't, then many more won't live to regret it. You stand up to bullies, you don't let them walk all over you, no matter how big they are.

[Dragoongfa]

No that is when you stand up to them, because if you don't, then many more won't live to regret it. You stand up to bullies, you don't let them walk all over you, no matter how big they are.

Partial sarcasm:

Just make sure to increase your military spending for a few years, re institute the military conscription, create a secret police to monitor Russian expats and make plans to survive a real war where the enemy will aim to destroy your home.

What I mean to say is:

Sentimentality is well and good but in geopolitics of this scale you should be prepared to put your money, your blood and your way of life on the line of fire.