Russia-Ukraine War

[Vertigo 7]

I thought I read something too about Russia deliberately attacking Wagner, not just setting them up to be slaughtered. Though I totally believe that's a thing they would do as they've done it before like the 200+ that were annihilated when they sent 3 lightly armed squads to take a US/SAF held refinery in Syria and got their asses handed to em.

[felter]

My take from this is that it had nothing to do with the Russia military they would not get involved unless they had to or were called upon, neither of these things happened. Who's job was it to defend Russia that was the FSB and the GRU and both of them took the stance not to intimidate the Wagner group, they instead approached Prigozhin and talked to him and that seems to have worked. I do not think and this is just my thinking Putin had little to do with any of it I say this is because the messages that were coming from his direction were all, Prigozhin is a traitor who stabbed him in the back, and he wanted him killed.

As for Putin himself, he showed his true colours, while he has called on hundreds of thousands of Russians to give up their lives for his cause in Ukraine, when it came down to it that he was possibly in danger and would have to fight, what did he do, he ran away, he put his tail between his legs and ran as fast as he could and didn't even look back, he didn't even wait for the danger to get close he just ran away at the first hint of trouble, he is the literal definition of a coward, and this will come back to haunt him, could even lead to his downfall or maybe just a fall from a very high window.

[fiksal]

My take from this is that it had nothing to do with the Russia military they would not get involved unless they had to or were called upon, neither of these things happened.

For Prigozhin it had everything to do with the military.
But he lost. Putin called his bluff with another bluff. Who had any means to follow up on their bluff we'll never know. Nor we'll see a legendary fight between Russians and Chechens. Yet.

Coming back to same thing that always happens. Putin's mates are bad at planning just like he is. They can only react.

So did this divide Z fascists or did they hug each other at the end with tears in their eyes?

Do people killed in this adventure matter? Probably not.

[Observe]

As for Putin himself, he showed his true colours...what did he do, he ran away, he put his tail between his legs and ran as fast as he could and didn't even look back, he didn't even wait for the danger to get close he just ran away at the first hint of trouble, he is the literal definition of a coward, and this will come back to haunt him, could even lead to his downfall or maybe just a fall from a very high window.

I wouldn't call it cowardliness. That's pretty standard operating procedure everywhere - get the head of state away from danger.

[fiksal]

As for Putin himself, he showed his true colours...what did he do, he ran away, he put his tail between his legs and ran as fast as he could and didn't even look back, he didn't even wait for the danger to get close he just ran away at the first hint of trouble, he is the literal definition of a coward, and this will come back to haunt him, could even lead to his downfall or maybe just a fall from a very high window.

I wouldn't call it cowardliness. That's pretty standard operating procedure everywhere - get the head of state away from danger.

consider that he is coward 24/7 though, or it's standard procedure to him.

he hardly meets in person, uses body doubles, has multiple locations setup up identically so no one knows where he is.

Paranoia is a common sense in Russian politics / mob business, and someone like Putin knows all too well why one should hide and from what.

[Tamina]

[...] the messages that were coming from his direction were all, Prigozhin is a traitor who stabbed him in the back, and he wanted him killed.

To my knowledge, Putin did in fact never address Prigozhin directly as a traitor or at all. Same with Prigozhin, who targeted Shoigu but never Putin. A subtlety that is nonetheless important in the question if this was a coup d'état or a dispute between two military leaders. Prigozhin can't have seriously assumed to be able to overthrow a 140 million people country with a mere 25k soldiers. The surprise in "the West" (I can't believe I am saying that) is probably best described as a "reality check of wishful thinking".

I am open to be convinced to the contrary

[felter]

No it's 100% cowardice, he never even hung around to find out what was going on before he ran away, he just up and ran as fast as he could, it also explains why he thought Zelensky would up and run away when the war started and was surprised when he didn't do that, he stayed to fight, now that is not cowardice. I never meant that the issue was not military related, but that the response to what was happening had nothing to do with them, it was not their job unless requested which never happened, and it has nothing to do with the Russian military being weak, the only weak link that appeared was brown trouser Putin himself.

[fiksal]

. The surprise in "the West" (I can't believe I am saying that) is probably best described as a "reality check of wishful thinking".

I am open to be convinced to the contrary

power in Russia can be changed with a few men. But yes this attempt doesn't look like it was it

who was surprised actually?

it might have been better for the world to see this rebellion through, even though, Prigozhin shouldn't have been a final stop.

to be fair I am surprised Prigozhin is still alive

[Vertigo 7]

Pretty sure the general expectation is that he won't be for long. I think everyone's pretty well expecting he's going to have an "unfortunate accident" in the not too distant future which all the Putin puppets will deny Putin had a hand in.

[fiksal]

referring back to the commentator I was suggested, there are interesting things to hear regarding Putin's damage control or irreversible damage
"Failed Coup Irreversibly Damages Putin" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5680U8ZQVMk

[mr.WHO]

Diplomacy in a nutshell:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8RHX_x8z8rI

[chew-ie]

[...] the messages that were coming from his direction were all, Prigozhin is a traitor who stabbed him in the back, and he wanted him killed.

To my knowledge, Putin did in fact never address Prigozhin directly as a traitor or at all. Same with Prigozhin, who targeted Shoigu but never Putin. A subtlety that is nonetheless important in the question if this was a coup d'état or a dispute between two military leaders. Prigozhin can't have seriously assumed to be able to overthrow a 140 million people country with a mere 25k soldiers. The surprise in "the West" (I can't believe I am saying that) is probably best described as a "reality check of wishful thinking".

I am open to be convinced to the contrary

IMHO the "surprise" was that it was ended so quickly. Of course the hope was that this inner conflict draws enough attention and ressources from the Ukraine invasion to ease the suffering of Ukraine and speed up the process of throwing Russia out of Ukraine. And at first it did - the aircrafts and the infrastructure destroyed in the first few hours were promising indeed.

The whole coup was pretty pointless (I still can't see any positive achievement for Russia here) - but so is this whole war.

Everyone could have benefit from an early ending of the Ukraine war - even Russia. Although they are not ready to see that yet. Mind you - Russia would benefit. Not Putin - and not his inner circle. They indeed have to answer [at some point] for their error in judgement to their own people.

[mr.WHO]

My bet is that whoever quietly backed him, was counting on military and populace neutrality and innaction.
However, once the helicopters/planes started falling and things started to escalate, they chicken out and pulled off the support.

I mean 25k Wagnerites could breach Moscow easily, but they would never be able to control and hold it for long.

It was a bluff, a good one, but once the panic and shock subsided it was game over.

[Chips]

Speculation over whether he gave up as no-one else raised up, or joined in, left him alone exposed and exceptionally likely to fail - so he quickly changed tack once the out was offered.

Reality, who remotely gives a flying monkeys - I was just hoping it'd all go to pot in Moscow for a week or two. Sad face.

[felter]

Seemingly there are several major Russian players both political and military that have not been seen since the weekend's fun and games and no one seems to know where they are, apart from one that they think fled to Amman as that's where his private jet went, they don't even know if they are alive or dead.

As for the Wagner Group, Putin has given them 3 options, go home, join the Russian army or go to Belarus to train Russian troops, not many if any are expected to take him up on any of those choices, instead they are expected to join other PMC's fighting in Ukraine or go to Africa. Either way, this is a major lose for Putin and Russia.

[mr.WHO]

As for the Wagner Group, Putin has given them 3 options, go home, join the Russian army or go to Belarus to train Russian troops, not many if any are expected to take him up on any of those choices, instead they are expected to join other PMC's fighting in Ukraine or go to Africa. Either way, this is a major lose for Putin and Russia.

Aparently, Putins' bill assymilate all PMCs into Russian Army, not only Wagner.
Even if they go home, another round of mobilization is coming, so they can be mobilized and pushed into meatgrinder anyway.

[felter]

So, did you all see the video's of Putin visiting Dagestan yesterday. If you haven't watched it yet, you first have to remember Putin will not meet up with anyone who hasn't gone through a 2 weeks process of isolation, he doesn't shake hands even with those he knows and is close too, and when he does meet up with people he sits at the head of the longest table in Russia, with the people he meets on the other end, Now watch the video. Hands up if you think that is Putin the Nosophobia.

I see more people are noticing those missing generals, rumours have it they have been arrested for treason, though the Kremlin is not saying anything about them when asked.

[Observe]

Putin will not meet up with anyone who hasn't gone through a 2 weeks process of isolation...Hands up if you think that is Putin the Nosophobia.

I watched the video you linked. Are you suggesting that media propaganda directed toward discrediting Putin is suspect as all propaganda is by definition? Perhaps I'm missing something.

[felter]

I'm saying there is no way that was Putin the Nosophobia, where he is in close contact with the general public shaking their hands and being breathed on by them, he would not be able to do such a thing.

[Observe]

I'm saying there is no way that was Putin the Nosophobia, where he is in close contact with the general public shaking their hands and being breathed on by them, he would not be able to do such a thing.

I'm still confused. Are you saying the person in the video wasn't Putin, but rather a double? Or are you saying that the rumors/propaganda of his suffering from nosophobia are unfounded?