Russia-Ukraine War

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Chips
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Chips » Fri, 14. Jul 23, 13:52

EGO_Aut wrote:
Thu, 13. Jul 23, 21:32
"Almost certainly" there would only US and maybe GB, barking and thread a little more, and not NATO.

France is the only left EU nuke power, they would not get involved.
I think you've done what I've done, understood what was being said to imply a nuclear response; hence why I repeatedly mentioned "NATO isn't going to start a nuclear war" and "Stoltenberg has no say in Nuke use" and had questioned whether it was the chemical weapons "trigger a equivalent response" (which seemed to imply chemical weapons use?!).
He actually meant conventional "ground forces". It only became apparent when reading the two links - I was sat going "yep, still nothing to do with nukes whatsoever". Then it dawned on me.

The two links also state some countries who happen to be NATO members may get involved not NATO as an entire entity itself; NATO is defence pact. Some or all of NATO may stick their oar in in the sense of protecting civilians if Nukes were used, but it's entirely possible Poland would go further in order to help. Whether *that* would result in all out war is anyones guess. No point even thinking about it.

But there's zero point talking about nuclear weapons; it leads threads entirely down the "and my thoughts are..." when thoughts are based on absolutely nothing but Joe Unknown on internet "thinking". There's no precedent to back up any ideas. There's no point in virtual guesswork of causalities. It's a dead end explorable only for war fantasists. Said several times the day-to-day "discussion" is just a means to throw uninformed opinions around. But isn't that the point of a forum discussion :D

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Mon, 17. Jul 23, 06:14

Looks like the kerch bridge joining Crimea and Russia got hit again. Part of the bridge seems to have collapsed. Might have been only one traffic way collapsed vs traffic in both directions.

Not much info in article.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/factbox-crime ... 02109.html

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felter
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by felter » Mon, 17. Jul 23, 17:55

Ukraine has admitted responsibility for it, which in itself is pretty unusual. The Russian vocal response to it is pretty comical, it's the usual terrorist attack, it's a pretty weird time to make a terrorist attack as it happened at 3am when traffic would have been at its minimal, if you do a terrorist attack you do so when it is the busiest time, let alone Russia just seems to keep forgetting they are at war with Ukraine, a war that they themselves started.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by fiksal » Tue, 18. Jul 23, 00:46

Russia had long forgotten meaning of words like, not limited to:
- war
- terrorist
- phobia
- Nazi
Gimli wrote:Let the Orcs come as thick as summer-moths round a candle!

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Tue, 18. Jul 23, 05:58

One side of the bridges traffic might start again Sept 15, 2023? The other sides traffic might start again much later in the fall. Wonder if having the people drive through occupied areas might be an eye opener or put a further strain on Russian logistics. Might also hamper Russia's ability to defend the occupied areas. Can't really mine areas or check on increased traffic, etc...?

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Tue, 18. Jul 23, 09:11

burger1 wrote:
Tue, 18. Jul 23, 05:58
One side of the bridges traffic might start again Sept 15, 2023? The other sides traffic might start again much later in the fall. Wonder if having the people drive through occupied areas might be an eye opener or put a further strain on Russian logistics. Might also hamper Russia's ability to defend the occupied areas. Can't really mine areas or check on increased traffic, etc...?
Doubt that. People living in Crimea have pretty good picture of what is happening in the rest of Ukraine. I also doubt that this will have any impact on strategic picture in the war - which total destruction of the bridge should have. I am bit surprised that they need months to rebuild the road part of the bridge but that is Russia for you. Railroad part looked pretty OK for me (just glancing on the images).
That is my uneducated take on it - ISW on other hand thinks this will have significant effects on the logistic (with civilian traffic clogging up the roads which Kremlin uses to resupply their forces in south-east Ukraine).

I am bit more worried about Kremlin exploiting obvious strategic weakness in Ukrainian force disposition right now. Then again...Kremlin does not have a Konev, Rokossovsky or Vasilevsky among its
officer staff these days.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Fri, 21. Jul 23, 16:42

Whoopsi - the FSB arrested Girkin. But do not cheer yet - it is of course not for him being a terrorist but for being an "extremist" according to russian law. ( :? ) Seems like he isn't useful anymore ...

(@source theguardian.com)

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mr.WHO
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 21. Jul 23, 16:58

chew-ie wrote:
Fri, 21. Jul 23, 16:42
Whoopsi - the FSB arrested Girkin. But do not cheer yet - it is of course not for him being a terrorist but for being an "extremist" according to russian law. ( :? ) Seems like he isn't useful anymore ...

(@source theguardian.com)
Girkin babbling on the internet - we can't have that.

Meanwhile Prigozin, who did an armed rebelion, moved on Moscow, shot down 6 gunships and 1 plane, enjoys vacation in Belarus :D

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Fri, 21. Jul 23, 20:55

In other news, Russia is bored already fighting the old NATO stuff in Ukraine and continues to threaten Rheinmetal. Somehow this reminds me to Q's phrase "Don't provoke the Borg!". :P

@source German article on an update about the Rheinmetal tank factory planned in Ukraine (Frankfurter Rundschau, german newspaper)

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 21. Jul 23, 23:28

Battle for Kyiv, Part II - well made Animated Analysis for the early days of war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzu8qQ8GN7U

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Sat, 22. Jul 23, 04:57

Russia is bringing in workers from Russia to start up the nuclear reactor at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant due to the Ukrainian workers refusing to bring online the reactor that has (?) explosives planted on it's roof. It's the reactor roof where they wouldn't let nuclear inspectors inspect. They might be blowing it up soon and want to cause maximum damage? Probably blow it up at night (2-3am?) not sure how long it would take to spread?

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-bring-w ... 30557.html

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mr.WHO
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Tue, 25. Jul 23, 19:33

When the drone warfare started for good, I wished to see this one in action:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb5_F4_Eod8


...seem like Christmas present will arrive this season:
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/statu ... yu3vp6t%2F

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by EGO_Aut » Wed, 26. Jul 23, 20:52

burger1 wrote:
Sat, 22. Jul 23, 04:57
Russia is bringing in workers from Russia to start up the nuclear reactor at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant due to the Ukrainian workers refusing to bring online the reactor that has (?) explosives planted on it's roof. It's the reactor roof where they wouldn't let nuclear inspectors inspect. They might be blowing it up soon and want to cause maximum damage? Probably blow it up at night (2-3am?) not sure how long it would take to spread?

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-bring-w ... 30557.html
You misunderstand the genius russian engineering.
Its for safety, just a kind of reactive armor shield against missiles and artillerie. /s

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by UnknownObject » Sat, 29. Jul 23, 21:11

chew-ie wrote:
Fri, 21. Jul 23, 16:42
Whoopsi - the FSB arrested Girkin. But do not cheer yet - it is of course not for him being a terrorist but for being an "extremist" according to russian law. ( :? ) Seems like he isn't useful anymore ...

(@source theguardian.com)
It is not a surprise. The surprise is how could he have lasted so long.
It seems the authorities remove the most "commited" people.
Мир всем народам на свете.
Нам не нужна
Война!

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by fiksal » Sun, 30. Jul 23, 00:36

UnknownObject wrote:
Sat, 29. Jul 23, 21:11
It is not a surprise. The surprise is how could he have lasted so long.
It seems the authorities remove the most "commited" people.
it's possible they see him more as a threat than a useful asset, now.
He is pro war and all that noise, but he is critical of Putin's government.
The regime appears to repeat the history, so any threat is going to be eliminated. Some slower than others.

Prigozhin situation probably moved the machine further into motion.
Gimli wrote:Let the Orcs come as thick as summer-moths round a candle!

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Tue, 1. Aug 23, 21:46

Grain deal

Russia: We will destroy you!
Cargo ships: We will ignore you!

Awesome :)

@source tagesschau.de / german state media Trotz russischer Drohungen Schiffe ignorieren Seeblockade (Despite russian threat - ships ignore sea blockade)

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by fiksal » Wed, 2. Aug 23, 03:43

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... s-airspace
Poland has rushed troops to its eastern border after accusing Belarus, Russia’s closest ally, of violating its airspace with military helicopters.
...
Last week, Putin accused Poland of harbouring territorial ambitions on Belarus
...
An unspecified number of the Wagner fighters have since moved to Belarus and begun training Lukashenko’s army. Poland had already started moving more than 1,000 of its own troops closer to the border.
A skill one develops when reading news from Russian state sources is reading between the lines, or rather what I call - reading the wishful thinking in reverse.

Kremlin is considering to test NATO commitment to Poland, see if part of Poland can join the USSR.

If whatever troops cross into Poland, I can predict the exact message that will be coming from Russia.

It'll be - those are not our troops, it's a regional problem, NATO should avoid the nuclear war and stand down, let things resolve on its own. Followed by, those are our troops, NATO should stand out to avoid nuclear war and we should sit down and negotiate peace while Russian troops denazify Poland.
Gimli wrote:Let the Orcs come as thick as summer-moths round a candle!

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Wed, 2. Aug 23, 04:21

Nato has already stated it considers Wagner part of Russian military.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Sovereign01 » Wed, 2. Aug 23, 06:20

burger1 wrote:
Wed, 2. Aug 23, 04:21
Nato has already stated it considers Wagner part of Russian military.
Considering that Russia has been insisting that Wagner mercenaries join the regular military, they can't exactly turn around and say they're not. Especially considering the regulars arguably perform worse and all :mrgreen:

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Wed, 2. Aug 23, 07:31

The won't roll in gun blazing and carrying big Wagner banner.

The problem is that they will be without uniforms and mixed with migrants.

Imagine all the useful idiots and clickbait media crying about shooting at poor refugees.

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