Just what is going on in the Ukraine? Including vote now, for politicians among us;)

[greypanther]

( On the instruction of the Site Admin, it seems I must up my output regarding threads I have started. So here we go!!! )

To my small mind the appears to be some confusion, perhaps I am just dim but it just feels almost like a proxy battle between the West and East again; a return to Cold War times. is there anyone with first hand knowledge who can shed some light on happenings?

This live update from the BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26302572

RT on the other hand call it a coup d’etat.
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-opposition-y ... -coup-273/

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich has called the latest developments in the country a coup d’etat, denying speculations of his resignation. He also accused international mediators of not fulfilling their obligations.

“I'm always threatened with ultimatums. I'm not going to leave the country,” Yanukovich said in an interview with local UBR TV channel. “I'm not going to resign. I'm a legitimately elected president.”

The interview with the embattled president was broadcast right after the opposition claimed it had received verbal assurances that Yanukovich was resigning.

But as parliament deputies said they were waiting for the written confirmation on his resignation, the president announced his plans to travel across the country's southeast, which is “so far, less dangerous.”

"Everything that is happening today is, to a greater degree, vandalism and bandits and a coup d'etat," Yanukovich said in a televised statement.

RT's live update:
http://rt.com/news/kiev-clashes-rioters-police-571/

This is all happening in Putin's front garden so to speak and I read of sabre rattling elsewhere. It could be said to be worrying.

Your thoughts please.

[brucewarren]

Removed as unhelpful

[Dragoongfa]

To understand the current Ukrainian mess one must understand the historical Ukrainian mess.

Warning, a LOT of history compressed into a handful of lines, reader beware.

Ukraine is a Russian foothold for centuries but the current mess dates back to the 1930s and the great famine that was caused there by Stalin. In short, Stalin ordered the confiscation of most of the agricultural output of Ukraine and then forced the collectivization of farming. This resulted in millions of dead from famine and is the main cause for the anti-communist and anti-russian hatred that exist in the western parts of the Ukraine.

This hatred resulted in the open support of the invading German forces and the many Ukranian volunteers of the Waffen SS (The SS division Galizien is just an example). When the Germans were pushed back the western parts of the Ukraine again suffered greatly from the soviet purges and many of the said volunteers had to find refuge elsewhere. Note that the Ukrainian SS are responsible for many heinous crimes of war at the eastern front.

At the 50s, the Soviet republics were reorganized and Ukraine got the Crimean peninsula and its current south eastern territories from Russia. This was done in order to somewhat stabilize the republic by introducing large numbers of Russian nationals into Ukraine.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was dominated by corrupt politicians and was plagued by its past. Make no mistake all of the current politicians of Ukraine are dirty to the core, even the now released former PM Yulia Timoshenko (who is a multi billionaire and controls around 20% of Ukraine's GDP) has numerous contacts in the underworld and many of her husband's associates are wanted by Interpol.

The main supporter's of the uprising and those responsible for most of the violence are the Ukrainian Ultra Far Right party Svoboda. In essence they are neo-nazis that would make the SS proud. The have an extreme anti-communist, anti-russian and anti-jew outlook and the openly advocated violence.

As one can easily realize, their power base is at the west part of the country.

The east part of the country, which is dominated by Russians, is the power center of President Yanukovich and it's local parliament has openly denounced the new Kiev government and has made clear that secession from the country is not out of the question.

Russia has also made it abundantly clear that they will fight over Crimea if the new government uses force to bring the eastern part of the country under control.

[greypanther]

As one can easily realize, their power base is at the west part of the country.

Yes your post backs what I had previously thought, but that was said to be untrue by another forum member previously. My knowledge of the Ukraine is second hand at best, so I bowed to the other opinion. < shrugs >

Russia has also made it abundantly clear that they will fight over Crimea if the new government uses force to bring the eastern part of the country under control.

I have been told this too, from a Westerner living in Russia. He claims that tanks will role in fact. He also claims that the other half of the Ukrainian problem: i.e. the far right is being backed by the USA, hence my concern and comparison to the Cold War. He suggests that Putin will put the Ukraine down, regardless of the USA; down hard too.

[silenced]

Well, a minority is taking over and prime criminal Julia Timoshenko is most likely getting back in power. The Ukraine is taking the way Italy took with Berlusconi.

Good Night!

[notaterran]

Trying to think of the consequences of civil war in Ukraine...

[Dragoongfa]

There won't be a civil war, not in the true meaning of the word.

The moment the new government thinks of using force against the eastern parts of the Ukraine the Russians will roll in and secure Crimea and probably all of the Ukrainian coastline; holding the rest of the country hostage until they yield.

If they don't yield Russia will either openly recognize and support the new country that will emerge or will outright annex the territories after a referendum since the majority of said territories is Russian or friendly to Russia anyway.

The US and the E.U are not capable of opposing Russia if that happens and the Chinese will be extremely pissed off since their new bread maker will be split in half. (China and the Ukraine had recently signed a long term lease of much of the Ukraine's farmland to produce food exclusively for chinese consumption; this was also backed by a nuclear deterrant alliance i.e. the chinese will retaliate with nuclear weaponry if any other nation uses nuclear weaponry against Ukraine).

My advise is this: Buy a lot of canned goods and a lot of pop corn...

[Patholos]

There won't be a civil war, not in the true meaning of the word.

The moment the new government thinks of using force against the eastern parts of the Ukraine the Russians will roll in and secure Crimea and probably all of the Ukrainian coastline; holding the rest of the country hostage until they yield.

If they don't yield Russia will either openly recognize and support the new country that will emerge or will outright annex the territories after a referendum since the majority of said territories is Russian or friendly to Russia anyway.

The US and the E.U are not capable of opposing Russia if that happens and the Chinese will be extremely pissed off since their new bread maker will be split in half. (China and the Ukraine had recently signed a long term lease of much of the Ukraine's farmland to produce food exclusively for chinese consumption; this was also backed by a nuclear deterrant alliance i.e. the chinese will retaliate with nuclear weaponry if any other nation uses nuclear weaponry against Ukraine).

My advise is this: Buy a lot of canned goods and a lot of pop corn...

No offense, but Tom Clancy much?

Russians don't need to roll in anything.

See this:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... europe.png

They only need to turn "some" valves and ukraine will be right back in line. Along with rest of Continental Europe.

[Dragoongfa]

You forget the stupidity of the Far Right, they basically built their power base on the on anti-Russian sentiment. Since they now became a major player they will have a lot to do with Ukrainian politics.

Handicapping a country's foreign policies for internal politics is not uncommon.

[Patholos]

You forget the stupidity of the Far Right, they basically built their power base on the on anti-Russian sentiment. Since they now became a major player they will have a lot to do with Ukrainian politics.

Handicapping a country's foreign policies for internal politics is not uncommon.

True.

However, I think that while the ukrainian far right have built their power base on anti-russian sentiment, they will not continue on it on a political platform.

Mainly because Russia will respond one way or another, while Ukraine will made themselves political phariahs. That if the parties that gets into power tries to enact any laws that will be discriminatory/ethnically charged.

Now granted, if they were stupid enough, it will be rectified soon enough. Either by a new uprising, dry russian pipelines or as you say, russian boots on ukrainian soil.

[clakclak]

[...]

The US and the E.U are not capable of opposing Russia if that happens and the Chinese will be extremely pissed off since their new bread maker will be split in half. (China and the Ukraine had recently signed a long term lease of much of the Ukraine's farmland to produce food exclusively for chinese consumption; this was also backed by a nuclear deterrant alliance i.e. the chinese will retaliate with nuclear weaponry if any other nation uses nuclear weaponry against Ukraine).

My advise is this: Buy a lot of canned goods and a lot of pop corn...

The US and E.U don't send troops as a first step to a civil war country, they act with economical blockades. Also i don't see why china should not be backing up US and EU attempts to prevent (or end) a civil war. But this matter is for the UN and not EU and US to decide anyway. If they have sutch a big deal with the Ukraine, then the probably don't want the deal to blow because of a civil war. The chance that anyone will use nuclear weaponry against the ukraine is unbelivable low. If the country sinks into a civil war (what i do not belive), nuclear weapons are pretty mutch useless. And i do not really see, why ukraine should attack another country.

[greypanther]

The story I was told is that some in the Ukraine expect Russia to use them first, hence the Chinese treaty. Bloody bizarre if you ask me!
Certainly the treaty is pointless even if Russia secure Russian interests with Russian boots on the ground. ( Though I have not obviously, read the entire treaty! )

As for papa Putin flexing his muscles, people ought to remember South Ossetia, how much logic was involved there? The problem may in fact be: do people forget that Russia is a very powerful country? Or more to the point is that how papa Putin perceives it?

[Dragoongfa]

@clakclak

The US and E.U. cannot really enforce any economic sanctions on Russia without shooting themselves at the foot by doing so.

The E.U. is heavily dependent on Russian Gas and Oil while the US has a more dangerous fish to fry with China.

The military option is completely out of the question, even the US cannot project enough military power to force Russia to back down, the support of the new government is also troublesome for a lot of obvious reasons.

The west has nothing to win here and plenty to lose, they should take a few steps backwards while telling the Ukrainians that they are stuck with the Russians for the foreseeable future.

[Patholos]

@clakclak

The US and E.U. cannot really enforce any economic sanctions on Russia without shooting themselves at the foot by doing so.

The E.U. is heavily dependent on Russian Gas and Oil while the US has a more dangerous fish to fry with China.

The military option is completely out of the question, even the US cannot project enough military power to force Russia to back down, the support of the new government is also troublesome for a lot of obvious reasons.

The west has nothing to win here and plenty to lose, they should take a few steps backwards while telling the Ukrainians that they are stuck with the Russians for the foreseeable future.

My thoughts exactly. But you never know about the political loose cannons on deck aka almost every politician that ever lived.

I keep my fingers crossed that realpolitik wins the day and not wishful thinking.

As for papa Putin flexing his muscles,

Papa putin stronk!
http://i.imgur.com/uLObD.png?1
http://img.pr0gramm.com/2013/10/putin-bear-2.jpg

[Dreez]

My opinion is that we should mind our own business.

The eastern states has always and will always have conflicts until they
grow up and learn to look past disagreement. Until them, i don't really
care if they make depopulation a national sport.

All those countries in the east and middleeast has always suffered from
corruption on a governmential level, and we shouldn't stick our nose into
and let them sort themselves out.

I sure wouldn't send my children to clean up someone elses mess.

[Dragoongfa]

Well things in Ukraine are getting interesting and out of control really fast.

The Ultra Far Rights of Svoboda are stupidly flexing their muscles really fast:

The new government moved forward a motion that negates long standing privileges of the various minorities (These minorities include Russians, Romanians, Greeks and various others). Some of these privileges include minority schools, the right to form unions and political parties and the right for their children to be taught their language at school.

Other motions moved forward is the banning of the Ukrainian Communist party and the removal of the law that made it illegal to voice support to Nazism.

Also the new national public prosecutor appointed by the interim president is a member of Svoboda.

Attacks on communist party members and MPs are frequent and the Rabbi of Kiev has advised the Jewish population to be on alert while other minorities have also voiced their concern.

In response to this the autonomous region of Crimea has announced that it is planning a referendum for secession from the Ukraine (The Crimean population consists of about 60% Russians, 15% Tatars and a mix of Ukrainians and other minorities).

Armed men from a Russian militia have seized the Crimean parliament without making any demands thus far. Russian military patrols, alongside Russian militiamen have set up military checkpoints around Sevastopol and Simferopol while numerous transport ships are ferrying troops from Russia to the Russian Black Sea naval base near Sevastopol.

Also of note are the large scale Russian military drills taking place from Kaliningrad (former Prussia) up to the borders with Georgia.

EDIT: Correction, the Crimean planned referendum states that it is for 'An enhanced autonomy.'

[RegisterMe]

I keep thinking that Putin would never be stupid enough to do anything.

And then go "perhaps he is" .

[Skism]

Cui Bono or "as a benefit to whom?"

Who is benefiting from this and why?

[Skism]

How interesting Russia predicted some of this:

http://www.tol.org/client/article/23954 ... hstan.html

[clakclak]

Cui Bono or "as a benefit to whom?"

Who is benefiting from this and why?

Hopefully the Ukrainians.