Russia-Ukraine War

[felter]

So the other day there I watched some Russian state television, and they had this Russian guy on that was an expert on Russian military and weaponry, and he gave them a dose of reality. He said it would be insane for Russia to mobilize the country as they do not have the weaponry or equipment to do so, he went on top explain it would take at least 3 months to create a single tank division, the end of the year before they could put together and train pilots and planes for them to fly, while if they want a new battleship they were looking at over 2 years. He also pointed out that right now they do not have the technology or means to create the technology to build the equipment they would need if they went ahead, what they ended up with they would just be sending their troops to their graves as they cannot compete with NATO equipment. Now as I said this was on Russian state television on a live broadcast, so it is not propaganda by the west, it was funny looking at the presenter's faces as he explained this to them, and they were suddenly getting the picture Russia is pretty much screwed right now. I've been looking for a link to it that I can post here, if I find it I will of course post it.

As for the now, the other day I heard a rumour that the Ukrainians were trying to cut off around 20K to 25K Russian soldiers south of Izyium, now as I said it was just a rumour, but it looks like the Ukrainians are currently in the process of taking back Izyium so that rumour could be true and would be a major set back to the Russians. It is also being reported though might just be another rumour, but the Russians are in retreat around the Kharkiv area, but that has been on the books for the last week or so. This is all good news, as it could all possibly lead to the end of the war, so let's hope these rumours are true as the sooner this mess end the better.

It's also looking like the Ukrainians are starting to receive a lot of equipment from the US, as there are a lot of videos appearing of the Ukrainians using the M777 which is a beast of an artillery piece as it can fire the M982 Excalibur guided shell which is bad news for Russia, as they have no defence against them.

[mr.WHO]

As for the now, the other day I heard a rumour that the Ukrainians were trying to cut off around 20K to 25K Russian soldiers south of Izyium, now as I said it was just a rumour, but it looks like the Ukrainians are currently in the process of taking back Izyium so that rumour could be true and would be a major set back to the Russians. It is also being reported though might just be another rumour, but the Russians are in retreat around the Kharkiv area, but that has been on the books for the last week or so. This is all good news, as it could all possibly lead to the end of the war, so let's hope these rumours are true as the sooner this mess end the better.

I don't want to put out your enthusiasm, but there are reports Russians managed to stop that counteratack...and that it's suppose to be a good thing, as if it would push any more, it would make Ukrainian flanks vulnerable to counter-counter-attack.

Ukraine high-command estimate that with the pace they reorganize the reserves and get NATO equipment, they will be able to launch real counteroffensive in mid-June.
I think they need to be careful and methodical, otherwise Russia will be able to play the attrition game as well.

There are also rumors that Ukraine pilots are already training on NATO planes (and not only the ex-soviet ones).

[notaterran]

Let's say that by the end of the summer Ukraine has recovered most of the East and South, do you think they would try to take back Crimea?

[Falcrack]

There are also rumors that Ukraine pilots are already training on NATO planes (and not only the ex-soviet ones).

I hope Ukrainians are also getting training on Patriot air defense systems. I know the excuse was that it would take too long to train them on these, but as this war looks to drag on, training now could pay off later. If they were smart, they would have started training ages ago. Maybe they did and are just not advertising it, which would probably be the wisest choice. Train Ukrainians in secret on the latest NATO equipment, so that when they are trained the equipment can be supplied and they can join the battle right away without giving Russia too much warning time.

[fiksal]

Let's say that by the end of the summer Ukraine has recovered most of the East and South, do you think they would try to take back Crimea?

That's a good question.

And I am quite possibly wrong about this - but I am not sure I see why Ukraine should. Even if it can.

If such opportunity comes, the cost and benefit should be considered, along with what's is the most important goal.

If lets say, it's to join NATO and EU, in whatever capacity it can be done after the war, then what is the quickest way there? Is it beneficial to have the breakaway Donbass that has been fermenting criminals for 8 some years to be part of the main land again? Would Crimea shift allegiances without fighting one more time? Will Russia let go of either destruction free, will Ukraine find itself fighting in the urban setting there against both Russian army and the locals? Or would it be more efficient to leave them behind in their bandit / USSR-like fantasies?

Hopefully they have better intel and read that situation better than I do.

To me, those territories present risk.

[Falcrack]

Let's say that by the end of the summer Ukraine has recovered most of the East and South, do you think they would try to take back Crimea?

Any of the pre Feb 24th territories should definitely be returned to Ukraine. I don't know about the pre 2014 borders. If Ukraine were to gain the upper hand and tried to take back Crimea, it may well be the sort of thing which would cause the conflict to go nuclear, since the Russians consider that territory to be theirs now.

Would the people of Crimea or Dontesk/Luhansk welcome the Ukrainian armed forces as liberators, or would the people who live there resent Ukraine for retaking those places? My gut feeling is that Ukraine should, if possible, kick Russia back to pre-2014 borders, concede the territories they lost in 2014, thus ending that particular frozen conflict.

[burger1]

Some gas getting shut off on Wednesday. Apparently it's too dangerous to continue to operate pipelines through parts of Ukraine which it is. People getting abducted or killed servicing the pipeline.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-operator ... 35267.html

"It is the first compressor in the Ukraine gas transit system in the Luhansk region, the transit route for around 32.6 million cubic metres of gas a day, or a third of the Russian gas which is piped to Europe through Ukraine"

EU uses about 13 billion cubic meters of gas per day from Russia? Probably less now? Anyways 32.6 million cubic metres of gas a day is a small amount.

[fiksal]

Let's say that by the end of the summer Ukraine has recovered most of the East and South, do you think they would try to take back Crimea?

Any of the pre Feb 24th territories should definitely be returned to Ukraine. I don't know about the pre 2014 borders. If Ukraine were to gain the upper hand and tried to take back Crimea, it may well be the sort of thing which would cause the conflict to go nuclear, since the Russians consider that territory to be theirs now.

Would the people of Crimea or Dontesk/Luhansk welcome the Ukrainian armed forces as liberators, or would the people who live there resent Ukraine for retaking those places? My gut feeling is that Ukraine should, if possible, kick Russia back to pre-2014 borders, concede the territories they lost in 2014, thus ending that particular frozen conflict.

yep my thinking exactly

Kremlin's back up strategy is to have Ukraine in a constant state of war

[burger1]

Would the people of Crimea or Dontesk/Luhansk welcome the Ukrainian armed forces as liberators

Dontesk/Luhansk probably yes. All the Russian citizens would be removed. Basically Russia populates areas with Russians then takes over areas. A lot of Ukrainian people have been deported and killed in these areas so it's no different than any other occupied area. Russian forces doubled back and destroyed villages in the area. There's still resistance fighters fighting against Russia in these areas.

Crimea is a different story. They forced out the local residents and let Russians move in. So Crimea doesn't matter since it's was forcefully repopulated. All the Russians will have to move.

If Russia nukes Ukraine then there's a chance UK at least if not more countries would nuke Russia then MAD would set in. UK is being pretty strange.

[mr.WHO]

Let's say that by the end of the summer Ukraine has recovered most of the East and South, do you think they would try to take back Crimea?

IMO, Crimea is waaaay to easy to defend for Russia, to be worth risking attrition by Ukraine.
Hell, it will be extremely hard for Ukraine to pass Dnieper, if they retake Cherson (aparently Russia has the bridges mined already, in case they need to blow them up).

The more viable strategy for Ukraine would be to keep claim on it, but let Russia hold it as occupied territory, then roll new Marshall plan for Ukraine.
That way we would have West/Est Germany scenario, so in decade or so of Ukraine rebuilding and Russia kept under sanction, people of Crimea might want to get back on their own accord.

I think, this was Ukraine stance during last round of peace talks, that Crimea status would put on hold for 15 years.

[Vertigo 7]

Let's say that by the end of the summer Ukraine has recovered most of the East and South, do you think they would try to take back Crimea?

IMO, Crimea is waaaay to easy to defend for Russia, to be worth risking attrition by Ukraine.
Hell, it will be extremely hard for Ukraine to pass Dnieper, if they retake Cherson (aparently Russia has the bridges mined already, in case they need to blow them up).

The more viable strategy for Ukraine would be to keep claim on it, but let Russia hold it as occupied territory, then roll new Marshall plan for Ukraine.
That way we would have West/Est Germany scenario, so in decade or so of Ukraine rebuilding and Russia kept under sanction, people of Crimea might want to get back on their own accord.

I think, this was Ukraine stance during last round of peace talks, that Crimea status would put on hold for 15 years.

You guys may or may not be aware, on the other side of the continent, Russia has been holding Japanese territory in the chain of islands off the mainland of Japan to the north, the Kuril Islands. Russia occupied those islands and has refused to return them to Japan since before WW2 - fun fact, WW2 is still ongoing between Japan and Russia as Japan has refused to sign a treaty until Russia returns the territory.

That island chain provides access to the Pacific for Russia's Navy and is of extreme strategic value to Russia. And there was a pretty massive oil deposit discovered there a few decades ago. Russia deported all Japanese nationals from the island chain after WW2

Since Russia started this war with Ukraine, Japan followed Europe and the US with sanctions against Russia and as a result, Russia formally withdrew from any peace talks with Japan and has since been building up its military presence in the Kuril Islands. Meanwhile, Japan has been building up its defenses to counter North Korea and China and they've been considering as well moving against the Kuril Islands to take their land back.

[Olterin]

Let's say that by the end of the summer Ukraine has recovered most of the East and South, do you think they would try to take back Crimea?

IMO, Crimea is waaaay to easy to defend for Russia, to be worth risking attrition by Ukraine.
Hell, it will be extremely hard for Ukraine to pass Dnieper, if they retake Cherson (aparently Russia has the bridges mined already, in case they need to blow them up).

The more viable strategy for Ukraine would be to keep claim on it, but let Russia hold it as occupied territory, then roll new Marshall plan for Ukraine.
That way we would have West/Est Germany scenario, so in decade or so of Ukraine rebuilding and Russia kept under sanction, people of Crimea might want to get back on their own accord.

I think, this was Ukraine stance during last round of peace talks, that Crimea status would put on hold for 15 years.

Passing the Dnieper might be a bit easier for Ukraine than for Russia, given how Ukraine's territory exists on both sides of the river, with several major crossings further north firmly under Ukrainian control (the capital included). So y'know, harder than not crossing it, but certainly not a major fording undertaking that Russia would have had to do. As for Crimea - I wish to point you to the early 20th century, when this peninsula switched hands rather often, which is strange considering it's such a defensive stronghold

Still, I agree, Crimea is poisoned very thoroughly.

[mr.WHO]

Passing the Dnieper might be a bit easier for Ukraine than for Russia, given how Ukraine's territory exists on both sides of the river, with several major crossings further north firmly under Ukrainian control (the capital included). So y'know, harder than not crossing it, but certainly not a major fording undertaking that Russia would have had to do. As for Crimea - I wish to point you to the early 20th century, when this peninsula switched hands rather often, which is strange considering it's such a defensive stronghold

Still, I agree, Crimea is poisoned very thoroughly.

The problem is that Dnieper is one a hell river, that has suprisingly few bridges.
Going around (e.g. striking into direction of Mariupol) would be as difficult or more, than trying to cross the Dnieper at Cherson region.

Even then, if Russian general would have some brain matter, all they need it to blow up a few bridges to sptil Ukraine in half to stop major offensive dead in the water.
Fortunately they are r*tarded and in Putin mind they can still take entire Ukraine, so they do not blow up the bridges.
Hopefully by June Ukraine will get some more anti-air and missile to secure the bridges for their offensive.

All tha Ukraine need to take is:
- cutting the land bridge (e.g. retaking Mariupol).
- taking back water canal (east to Cherson) that supply Crimea with fresh water.

With these two done, any remaining territorial gains of Russia are useless - that way Crimea and other occupied territories would be a huge burden to sanctioned Russia.

[Alan Phipps]

@ burger1: "If Russia nukes Ukraine then there's a chance UK at least if not more countries would nuke Russia then MAD would set in. UK is being pretty strange."

If Russia believes that too then that might be an effective form of deterrence - even if the Brits don't believe it.

[JSDD]

Let's say that by the end of the summer Ukraine has recovered most of the East and South, do you think they would try to take back Crimea?

its like invading foreign territory ... as i said before, up to 85% of the people there are russians, they wont "welcome" the ukrainians, thats for sure
i mean they can try, but russia wont give up on that peninsula, and sevastopol is kind of a fortress ... good luck invading it ^^

[mr.WHO]

@ burger1: "If Russia nukes Ukraine then there's a chance UK at least if not more countries would nuke Russia then MAD would set in. UK is being pretty strange."

If Russia believes that too then that might be an effective form of deterrence - even if the Brits don't believe it.

First of all, if Russia nuke non-nuclear state, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) goes out of the window automatically - I can see a few dozen states starting to develop their nuclear arsenal immedietaly (lets not forget Iran would be like, OK now it's an open shop, who whants to buy nuke? since I happend to have all these idle plutonium enrichment machines).

Secondly, everyone who could, would pour money for advancement of missile-defence systems, which might actually turn something like SDI/Star War from fake concept, to actually working system.

Both would ruin Russia only remaining card of nuclear deterence.
Nuking Ukraine now, would guarantee, that Russia would be ROTFL stomped 10-15 years in future, when everyone will be tired of their shit and the nuclear thread no longer a viable.
Not to mention that by then, West will have like 100k drones of various kind and sizes, so it would probably barely take any casualties on Allies side.

[V2200]

Both would ruin Russia only remaining card of nuclear deterence.
Nuking Ukraine now, would guarantee, that Russia would be ROTFL stomped 10-15 years in future, when everyone will be tired of their shit and the nuclear thread no longer a viable.
Not to mention that by then, West will have like 100k drones of various kind and sizes, so it would probably barely take any casualties on Allies side.

Oh those couch strategists

Would the people of Crimea or Dontesk/Luhansk welcome the Ukrainian armed forces as liberators

Dontesk/Luhansk probably yes. All the Russian citizens would be removed. Basically Russia populates areas with Russians then takes over areas. A lot of Ukrainian people have been deported and killed in these areas so it's no different than any other occupied area. Russian forces doubled back and destroyed villages in the area. There's still resistance fighters fighting against Russia in these areas.

Crimea is a different story. They forced out the local residents and let Russians move in. So Crimea doesn't matter since it's was forcefully repopulated. All the Russians will have to move.

Let's say that by the end of the summer Ukraine has recovered most of the East and South, do you think they would try to take back Crimea?

Crimea is lost to Ukraine forever (or until the dubious decision of another Khrushchev).

[JSDD]

Nuking Ukraine now, would guarantee, that Russia would be ROTFL stomped 10-15 years in future, when everyone will be tired of their shit and the nuclear thread no longer a viable.
Not to mention that by then, West will have like 100k drones of various kind and sizes, so it would probably barely take any casualties on Allies side.

what do you want with drones ?!
drones are an easy target for any air defence system, even for those sh*tty ones like the german "gepard" (you just need powerful radar)

and what the heck do drones have to do with nukes ??
a nuke in a hypersonic missile is something you cant really defend yourself against

[mr.WHO]

Oh those couch strategists

Not a strategy, just general trend reading, I might be off by 5-10 years and I don't account major factor, if China will vasalise Russia or not.

Look how Russia still struggle with a bunch of Bayraktars, while having air and AAA superiority - it's bizzare.
NATO edge in drones will only increase.
Poland just made an order for about 2'000 drones of various size and other Western countries will soon follow with spending spree (Germany ordered a bunch of drones as well).
US alone have like what, 30'000 drones already? It's really not a Sci-Fi to expect 100k drones fighting 10-15 years in future.
Especially, if tension remain at new Cold War level and sanction will stay.
Hell, even 3rd world countries of Azerbeijan and Armenia already had a drone war a year or two ago, so it's not even a top-tier tech anymore.


Meanwhile, Russian Orlan-10 became meme of DIY patchwork:
https://www.businessinsider.in/politics ... 781344.cms

Russia had a huge stockpile of ex-soviet union equipment, that got obsolete overnight by some dude with NLAW.
The nuclear thread is the only thing left for Russia to throw, but this will be gone eventually - ti's only a matter, if it will be gone in 30 or 10 years.
What are the odds that a few hundred ICBMs that Russia has are as obsolete as their tanks?
Note that US is already working on anti-missile defense againt hypersonic, so this card will not keep up for long as well.


Seriously, only influx of China tech could change this trend.
However, it might be that China tech is the same smoke & mirrors - this would explain why they want to stay away from this conflict, rather that use as opprotunity to field test their stuff.
If anything, West is confident in their stuff working and not shy from putting it to the field test in Ukraine.

You had a weak, demoralized and slowly demilitarizing NATO, yet with just one action, now you have NATO going back to shape and possibly expanding - that's a huge strategic achievement of Dear Leader - who's couch strategist now?

what do you want with drones ?!
drones are an easy target for any air defence system, even for those sh*tty ones like the german "gepard" (you just need powerful radar)

Then I guess all Bayraktars should have been already dead by week two, rather than still blasting two months later.

[V2200]

Kherson region asks to be part of Russia. Without declaring independence and holding a referendum.

mr.WHO
Vaunted Baraktars fall from the sky in large numbers

Great Polish Dreams. Lots of water and complete incompetence.