Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

Politicians put a singnature and announced success first, before checking with business

PGZ was very displeased with past cooperation with German industry, so they want to bounce off this - currently they swim in other contracts, so they have a luxury to be picky.

Germans were checking two options in paralel, one in Poland and one in Slovakia.
Since Polish one seems to fail, it's natural they'll shift to Slovakia soon.
I recall PzH2000 service center is already placed there - in fact, the story was the same for that one, Germans wanted to put it in Poland first, got burned by issues, moved to Slovakia.
There also might me some kind of market tension, not wanting for Germans to gain a foothold, when American and Korean products penetrate the market.

[Tamina]

Today, the German minister put pressure on his counterpart to bring the negotiations about a Leopard 2 repair facility within Poland to an end "within 10 days". He clearly appealed to his host to act: "It must be clear: Repair is an essential part of sustainable support for Ukraine". His counterpart merely stressed that the negotiations were complex.

For a good four months now, Berlin has been negotiating with Warsaw on the opening of a joint repair centre. Although the 18 weapons systems delivered by Germany to Ukraine are still operational, several Leopard tanks delivered by other nations have returned from the front in Ukraine in need of repair. Consequently, the opening of the so-called maintenance hub, is more than urgent.

--- Summary from Source: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... ae67faa2d1

I recall PzH2000 service center is already placed there - in fact, the story was the same for that one, Germans wanted to put it in Poland first, got burned by issues, moved to Slovakia.

Interesting. Did not know that. I wonder why Rheinmetall or KMW are not doing the maintenance work instead of PGZ. Why go the extra mile.

[mr.WHO]

Interesting. Did not know that. I wonder why Rheinmetall or KMW are not doing the maintenance work instead of PGZ. Why go the extra mile.

Whatever little capabilities of RhM or KMW are left in Germany are fully exchausted by servicing Bundeswhere,I recall their only noteworthy facilities outside Germany are in Greece and Greece do not want to share it either.

Seem like decades of peace divident really downsized the military industry in Europe.
Now everybody scramble in panic to reserve any free maintenace/production capabilities for themselves.

That's why I think Germany will try their luck with Slovakia and possibly Czechia as they have some capabilities still free.
The other option would be Hungary...but not while Orban is in charge.

[Warenwolf]

Interesting. Did not know that. I wonder why Rheinmetall or KMW are not doing the maintenance work instead of PGZ. Why go the extra mile.

No idea on whether doctrine has changed last 10 years but remount work and repair and maintenance is something you want closest to the front as possible. Then you run into the fact that tooling and factories closer to the front are most probably owned by someone in this case. Hence the need to go extra mile with third parties.
Then there is question of whether existing plant lines in Germany are busy with new orders for new Leopard tanks (like the 54 Norway ordered or 18 Germany ordered recently) - pitiful numbers but if production capacity is low...

[mr.WHO]

Then there is question of whether existing plant lines in Germany are busy with new orders for new Leopard tanks (like the 54 Norway ordered or 18 Germany ordered recently) - pitiful numbers but if production capacity is low...

Don't forget 50 brand new Leo 2 for Hungary and refurbish/repair of Leo 2 swap for Czechia and Slovakia.
Aparently, total yearly production capacity of Leo 2 could be maximum of 100 tanks (if you combine both Germany and Greece facilities) on a very optimistic assumption.


That's why, when Poland suddenly said we need 1'000 tanks, I could only imagine the faces of many people.
Even with our USA and South Korea friends, we basically had to screw ROK land forces a bit and loot most of USMC leftover Abrams, so we could already start to rolling in K2 and Abrams this year.

[Observe]

Zelensky calls on Biden to invite Ukraine into NATO now – even if membership doesn't happen until after war.

Dmitry Medvedev said Moscow is ready to deliberately make the current conflict a permanent one, because "this is a matter of Russia's existence."

Personally, I think discussions re. Ukraine membership in NATO should be frozen until after the war, because this subject will factor into any eventual peace negotiations. According to Russia, the threat of NATO on their border, loomed large in their reason for starting this war in the first place.

I know Zelensky would love to pull the world even deeper into this madness, but perhaps we should leave that one on the back burner for a while.

[Warenwolf]

Personally, I think discussions re. Ukraine membership in NATO should be frozen until after the war, because this subject will factor into any eventual peace negotiations. According to Russia, the threat of NATO on their border, loomed large in their reason for starting this war in the first place.

While I think that talks regarding NATO invitations to Ukraine is simply bit too soon and largely symbolic, I note that you are far more understanding towards Putin in your post and condemning towards Zelenskyy.

Regarding Putin I think you fail to understand the concept of autocratic leader with imperial ambitions which perceives international politics as a zero-sum game. You can't accommodate them because they perceive your accommodations as weakness and invitations to push for more.
If Putin had won in Ukraine in matter of two or three weeks, we would have third world war now with Putin invading Baltic countries, perhaps right after an invasion of Moldavia, wars which most Russians, unfortunately, would support.

This is a nation which under Putin spent significant resources on trying to stage a coup in Montenegro (NATO country), trying to spread conspiracy theories about vaccinations, including COVID (which caused many deaths due to anti-vaxxers), cyber attacks on NATO countries (targeting specifically health organizations), attempting to influence elections, raise discord in the western societies, finance parties and organizations with anti-EU and anti-NATO agenda...
Meanwhile, many countries in EU at least, was making large efforts to increase economic cooperation with Russia right up to start of the Ukrainian war, even after 2014 invasion of Crimea and 2008 war against Georgia with even 75% of Russians FDI being from EU. This would be equivalent with schoolchildren in US selling cookies in order to finance the next 911 attack.

And regarding Zielenskyy...he tried calling Putin on the first day of the war. Putin refused the call. And here we are.

[Observe]

While I think that talks regarding NATO invitations to Ukraine is simply bit too soon and largely symbolic, I note that you are far more understanding towards Putin in your post and condemning towards Zelenskyy.

Not at all. Zelensky is conducting himself in a manner that anyone would do in his position and doing so admirably. At the same time, while Putin is clearly the villain, we need to examine whether or not there are any underlying valid concerns on the part of Russia that need to be acknowledged in the long run.

If Putin had won in Ukraine in matter of two or three weeks, we would have third world war now with Putin invading Baltic countries, perhaps right after an invasion of Moldavia, wars which most Russians, unfortunately, would support.

I went down this road when I was drafted into the Vietnam war. Communism would spread its evil tentacles throughout the region and beyond. So we were told. I'm not saying you are wrong in your estimate, but I don't easily accept it.

[Vertigo 7]

oh whatever. NATO has never once attacked or threatened to attack Russia. Sure, it's said repeatedly it will defend itself and respond to attacks from Russia, meanwhile Putin has threatened anyone/everyone repeatedly over the years and has engaged in wars against its neighbors for imperialistic expansion. The threat NATO poses is unified defense against Russia. There's nothing else to understand.

As a matter of fact, I'm not aware of any single incident involving Russian and US or NATO troops where Russia wasn't the instigator/aggressor.

[Tamina]

Russia is definitely going to propaganda out everything they can from a NATO membership offer: "See! We were right!!! Our war is necessary!!"

[Observe]

The threat NATO poses is unified defense against Russia. There's nothing else to understand.

Perhaps you weren't alive during the Cuban missile crisis. I was. Perhaps you think the US would be happy if Mexico or Canada decided to align with Russia or China with their missiles on our border pointed within minutes of us? Beware of lauding one side while lionizing the other. Truth is seldom that simple.

The question is how long must the killing fields persist and what kind of compromises will eventually be accepted? Ukraine isn't gaining much traction and political will on the part of allies, is every bit as pertinent as the willingness for Ukraine to continue fighting. Biden has already expressed that regime change in Russia is what he is after. War in Ukraine is a convenient means to that end. However, if Biden loses reelection, I suspect the next administration may not be so willing to keep feeding the war machine without serous peace negotiations on the table.

[Vertigo 7]

The threat NATO poses is unified defense against Russia. There's nothing else to understand.

Perhaps you weren't alive during the Cuban missile crisis. I was. Perhaps you think the US would be happy if Mexico or Canada decided to align with Russia or China with their missiles on our border pointed within minutes of us? Beware of lauding one side while lionizing the other. Truth is seldom that simple.

The question is how long must the killing fields persist and what kind of compromises will eventually be accepted? Ukraine isn't gaining much traction and political will on the part of allies, is every bit as pertinent as the willingness for Ukraine to continue fighting. Biden has already expressed that regime change in Russia is what he is after. War in Ukraine is a convenient means to that end. However, if Biden loses reelection, I suspect the next administration may not be so willing to keep feeding the war machine without serous peace negotiations on the table.

Well, thanks for bolstering my point. I'm well aware that Russia used Cuba to stage MRBMs within striking distance of the US.

I'm also well aware that the Orange One and his followers are ready to hop back in bed with Russia. They're traitors so, why not, right? They're also after turning the US into a dictatorship under fascist rule by way of the spray tanned emperor.

But hey, I know you just wanna talk. I guess you missed the multiple attempts from damn near everyone to get Putin to deescalate that he has repeatedly snubbed. Maybe you have some magic combination of words that will get it done that no one else has been able to string together? If you do, I'll buy you a ticket to Russia myself.

Vietnam was a stupid f'n war that we never should have been involved in. There's no denying that. There's also no denying that you and the rest of the veterans coming home from that war were treated abysmally. I'm truly sympathetic to you on both counts. But this ain't that. Ukraine didn't ask for this war. No one other than Russia wants this war. Ukraines surrender is not an option as Putin will likely have them all executed or worse. And his plans to invade beyond Ukraine's borders have already been leaked so there's that too. The only option is to stop Russia. All of this blood is on Putin's hands.

[Tamina]

That's a very good point @Vertigo 7. The US warned the world of a Russian attack well before it happened, and leaders around the world called Putin non-stop, trying to negotiate him out of the war. He did not listen. He did not care. He started the war.

I almost forgot that.

[notaterran]

So far Ukraine (with NATO help) has not allowed Russia to win, I hope that Ukraine gets more and better weapons.

[Observe]

Looks like both Ukraine and Russia are anticipating an attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on July 5th. Who has the most to gain from doing such a thing? Reminiscent of the Nord Stream pipeline and the dam destruction. Both sides blame the other.

[fiksal]

continuous destruction on Ukraine soil benefits one side exactly, as pointed out, one side even admitted. (many times actually)

[mr.WHO]

Looks like both Ukraine and Russia are anticipating an attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on July 5th. Who has the most to gain from doing such a thing? Reminiscent of the Nord Stream pipeline and the dam destruction. Both sides blame the other.

Given that Russia already rolled through, waged war, used as munition storage and looted Chernoby Power Plant, this is really not a hard question to ask.

[V2200]

@ mr.WHO, fiksal
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... n-donetsk/

The two bridges were targeted with U.S.-supplied M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems — or HIMARS launchers, which have a range of 50 miles — and were quickly rendered impassable.

“There were moments when we turned off their supply lines completely, and they still managed to build crossings,” Kovalchuk said. “They managed to replenish ammunition. … It was very difficult.”

Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.

The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.

there is nothing surprising if the army is commanded by a drug addict.
Shake off the noodles from your ears more often, which Ukrainian propaganda hangs on you.

[Alan Phipps]

Nothing new there, we even discussed it earlier - quoting myself earlier in this thread about the road bridge denial relating to the dam:

"Correct me if I am wrong but, according to satellite imagery before and after, that was just a small span over a bypass channel to the side approaches to the dam that would be well within the capability of combat engineers to bridge. Indeed, both sides claimed to have done that damage during different phases of advance and retreat. Isn't propaganda strange."

Even precision targeting of a sluice gate (probably also in the bypass channel to the side of the main dam) to affect water levels for tactical reasons without incurring an outright flood is hardly the same as laying major demolitions across the main span of the dam with all the outcomes that the collapse of that would entail.

This is mainly verified by before and after satellite imagery and who had control of the dam at the time, not anyone's propaganda.

[EGO_Aut]

Russia is definitely going to propaganda out everything they can from a NATO membership offer: "See! We were right!!! Our war is necessary!!"

Yes, it was necessary.
But RU did not own whole UKR, but most of the civil war territories. Atm it looks that not even Nato equipment can help UKR to get the occupied territories back.
We will see.
Meanwhile Leopards do a good job, but what did Challengers or Abrahms? It smells like US fear losses.....F16 40years old jets could make a change?
Give them better stuff, or it will take ages.