Russia-Ukraine War

[felter]

Once again I doubt it would work, to try and do it from air would be suicide as the area we are talking about is literally a no-fly zone, if a Russian aircraft was to enter that area the Ukrainians would stick a missile up its exhaust pipe, they already do that to any aircraft that gets to close to its border, even on the Russian side. Same with patrol boats, they are quickly attacked if they enter these waters, this is why Russia had to withdraw from snake island, they just couldn't get there and back again safely without either aircraft or boat being attacked and a lot of times destroyed. Don't get me wrong, I don't think it is impossible, I just think it is improbable and not worth the effort.

[notaterran]

Ukraine hits Russian oil tanker with sea drone hours after attacking naval base

Link

I was expecting Ukraine to have this capability much later in the war but occasional drone attacks have been going on for a while. I hope that Ukraine is able to produce drones in high numbers (or that someone donates them).

[burger1]

Looks like Russia is launching cruise missiles from Belarus now. Belarus might be entering the war?

[chew-ie]

And here it is showed once more, Ladies & Gentlemans - the absurdity of the official reasons of the russian invasion in Ukraine.

While claiming it is all about fighting Nazis in Ukraine, Russia is collaborating with the AfD in order to destabilizing Germany - which is essentially partnering up with Nazis. Just like in "good old times" -.-

https://insightnews.media/russias-fundi ... o-ukraine/

[Tamina]

I wonder why they try to hide it. Marine Le Pen just says it out loud, is even proud to be controlled by Putin, and got over 40% in the last election.

That is the state of central EU. In the name of tolerance and freedom of speech we accept to be undermined and controlled by foreign propaganda.

[V2200]

Right now, Russia's Black Sea fleet hardly leaves the harbour this is because when ever they do they get attacked and as I've already mentioned they cannot get any new naval ships into the Black Sea as Turkey won't allow it, so they cannot afford to risk their ships willy-nilly.

With some types of ships, this can be done bypassing Turkey. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga%E2%80%93Don_Canal
This is how several ships were redirected from the Caspian Sea a few years ago.

[felter]

It does beggar the question, if they can do it, then why aren't they doing it, I mean how many months ago did Ukraine destroy the Russian Black Sea fleet flagship, and it has never been replaced, all they have done is name another of the fleet as their flagship, wouldn't it be better to replace it with like for like or something close. As far as I'm aware, there are only two canals that are capable of being used by large military sailing vessels, the Suez and Panama canals, of course I could easily be wrong on that, as I'm not up to speed on large overly sized canals.

[Warenwolf]

If a country mines a port of another country and a third party ship blows up, that's not act of war?

Considering that countries 1 and 2 are not technically at war. Are waters contested either?

1 - If we are talking about country 1 being Russia and country 2 being Ukraine and the year is 2023 - then no. Sure some will claim it, but that is not how third parties will see it.

2 - That is just academic discussion by this point*. Sure you can accept Kremlin narrative the war in Ukraine is not a war. Then again, in their fantasy they are already making plans for the future
with Berlin, Dresden, Prague, Ljubljana and Paris being part of future Russia. So yeah...


* Grain exports have been heavily reduced with Reni and Izumi, two small ports close to the Rumanian border being these days used for grain exports, where ships can slip quickly into Romanian territorial waters - instead of the bigger sea ports with higher capacity further north (deeper in contested waters and closer to the Russian assets).


--------------------


As a side comment to some of the discussion in previous pages ( I will be brief, I have very little gaming time to my disposal these days and intend to use it fully on BG3)

Also naval mines (of which are many, many types), ever since WW1 if I am not mistaken - certainly by late 20s, could be deployed through standard 533 mm torpedo tubes which means that anything that can deploy anything that has a torpedo launching tubes. Areal deployed mines (although existing) are not really a thing due to weight and expense operating a mine deployment operation.
Of course if you accept reddit narrative regarding UKR control of black sea, that limits it to only submarines (which Kremlin has several in Black Sea). On other hand just a quick glance on the areal operations over black sea and intercepts by and of Russian aircraft as they are reported in open sources gives a tad more nuanced picture then the "UKR wins at all fronts, at all time" internet warrior crowd does.
Technically mining Black Sea is not a problem - anyone claiming differently speaks out of their posterior. The issue has always been a political one and fear of escalation. Someone who loses couple of freighters to Kremlin's naval mines may also be willing to assist certain parties to mine certain Russian ports too.

[felter]

I'm not saying it is impossible to mine the Black Sea, I'm sure it is, what I'm saying is I don't think Russia currently has the proper equipment in the Black Sea right now to be able to achieve that goal. You mention a submarine, I do believe that Russia does have a submarine in the Black Sea, but is it capable of creating a minefield, I'm not too sure on that, originally it was deployed to the Black Sea to destroy Ukraine's navy, which Ukraine scuttled at the start of the war, so the Submarine has not actually had anything really to do, so maybe it could be used to mine the Black Sea I just don't know, and I doubt anyone here has that knowledge either, like anything said here it is purely speculation on all sides as we cannot know as none of us are in the loop to know. So in the end I suppose we are all just talking out of our rear ends, most of it I take it we are just trying to have some kind of conversation. I know I'm not trying to put anyone down, and I'm sure most of us here are in that boat, I actually like it when someone who does know points out my mistakes as that is how you learn things, and it sure beats just being insulted.

[mr.WHO]

Ukraine crossed Dnieper at another sector:
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/16888 ... Mh4RfLW%2F

Could be either a distraction to spread Russian forces more thin, or (I hope) preparation for actual push to bypass the Zaporozia defense line.

[notaterran]

A factory in a city near Moscow making optical systems for the Russian military was rocked by an explosion on Wednesday, which sent a column of smoke into the sky and injured 56 people.

[...]

The same plant also caught fire in June last year, just a few months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Link

That plant seems to have a serious case of bad luck.

[Sovereign01]

Where Will Wagner Go Next After Exodus from Belarus?

The sensational deal between President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may have collapsed, amid reports that the mercenary fighters are leaving their bases in Belarus and heading to multiple different areas of Wagner activity.

Since Prigozhin's abortive mutiny in June, thousands of Wagner mercenaries have reportedly been relocating to Belarus, taking the Kremlin up on its offer for pardons in exchange for exile. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko oversaw the deal, and reportedly offered to fund Wagner's presence.

But while the Kremlin will likely continue to use Prigozhin's men for "psychological operations" against NATO, sources have told Newsweek that the bulk of the mercenary group may soon be redeployed elsewhere.

The Wagner-linked VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reported on Wednesday that several hundred Wagner fighters were being bussed out of the country after Lukashenko refused to pay for their relocation. The channel suggested that some fighters were traveling to the Russian cities of Voronezh, Rostov-on-Don, and Krasnodar, as well as Libya.

The Institute for the Study of War noted the reports in its Wednesday bulletin, which it said "suggest that aspects of the deal" between Putin and Prigozhin "have collapsed."

"The likely collapse of aspects of the Wagner-Putin-Lukashenko deal indicates that Putin has failed to decisively resolve issues posed by Prigozhin and Wagner following Wagner's June 24 rebellion," the ISW said.

The regular Russian military—led by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu—has been working to absorb Wagner personnel, equipment and operations since the coup collapsed. This process has been proceeding within Russia and on the battlefields of Ukraine, but Wagner's global footprint poses problems for Moscow.

Taking control of the group's lucrative African operations poses a particular problem for a Russian military that has long lacked significant power projection.

"Putin is unlikely to resolve the Wagner problem as long as tensions remain between Putin's own aim of separating Prigozhin from Wagner and Shoigu's aims to secure full [defense ministry] control over Wagner and the other armed forces fighting for Russia," the ISW bulletin said.

"Speculations about Shoigu taking over Russian military operations in Africa from Wagner, if true, will likely only exacerbate tensions between the [defense ministry] and Wagner personnel returning from Belarus or Africa to Russia rather than persuading the Wagner personnel to join conventional Russian military formations in accord with the prior deal."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries by email to request comment.

A Wagner withdrawal from Belarus—whether in part or total—would mark the end of a brief, but tense, standoff on NATO's eastern flank. Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have all expanded their border military footprint in response to Wagner's arrival, fearing the mercenaries might engage in new frontier provocations or accelerate Minsk's long-standing weaponization of migrant flows.

"No one really knows yet," Franak Viacorka—the chief political adviser of exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya—told Newsweek of Wagner's apparent departure. "In the next two to four weeks things will be clearer. Our insights say they will be going to African missions. But Putin and Lukashenko will be using Wagner to threaten Lithuania and Poland."

"This is exactly what they want," Viacorka added, noting that even a small contingent of Wagner troops can continue the Moscow-Minsk psychological operation against the West, while the majority of the group's forces head back to Russia or abroad.

"Instead of helping Ukraine, now the whole discussion of NATO is about protecting the border," Viacorka added. "Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin are conducting a psychological operation against the West, and they are pretty successful. From our information, the Wagner Group will probably be used for some small provocations. But it's not enough people for any serious invasion. This is all part of their big game."

Where Next for Wagner?
Samuel Ramani, the author of Russia in Africa and an associate fellow at the British Royal United Services Institute think tank, told Newsweek that a "small number" of Wagner fighters might remain in Belarus to train Lukashenko's people's militias and other units.

Financing, Ramani said, was always going to be a problem given the disappearance of Kremlin funding and the lack of natural resources to support their presence in Belarus. Prigozhin's force has already unsettled NATO, and it does not have the personnel or equipment to launch a major military operation against the alliance or Ukraine.

"There's really not much use, from a strategic perspective, for Wagner to be clustered in Belarus right now," Ramani said. "It's natural that they would want to be going elsewhere. And Russia will be their stop-off point."

"The next step is that they would probably be used to strengthen Russia's presence in Africa," Ramani added. "Maybe they'll start in Libya, maybe these forces will try to get into Niger," he said, noting Prigozhin's overtures to the newly empowered junta there.

"Some of them will probably be deactivated, and they might return one day even to the front line in Ukraine," Ramani said. "Others will probably be kept on standby in case there's a new African theater of operations that opens up and they decide to come in."

Wagner has several ongoing African military deployments. In Libya, the group is fighting with General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan Arab Armed Forces in the country's long-running civil conflict. In Sudan, Wagner forces operate lucrative gold mining and processing facilities.

In the Central African Republic, Wagner troops recently helped ensure another term for President Faustin-Archange Touadera. And in Mali, the mercenaries have moved in to fill the power vacuum left by withdrawing French forces.

"Sudan is probably the likeliest theater for them to deploy to right now," Ramani said, noting Wagner's interest in securing its gold supplies there amid the country's deepening civil war.

[burger1]

Looks like Kerch bridge was hit again.

Looks like Nigers military coup is backed by Russia. Russia telling Ecowas (Economic Community of West African States) not to send in their military. Ecowas already committed to deploying their troops.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66478430

[notaterran]

Russia telling Ecowas (Economic Community of West African States) not to send in their military.

What's Russia going to do, send Wagner and attack the entire West Africa? They're bluffing as usual, how many times did Russia threaten Western countries? Perhaps the only card the Russians have left to play is to cut the supply of food to Africa.

[fiksal]

I think Wagner troops demonstrate this kind of worship to Putin that many Russians have. Not necessarily ready to die for, but the kind that will do everything that is asked of them. Backed by blind faith that they will be okay.

So they are going into Russia, meaning two things, that they think they can trust Kremlin in that it forgot who they are.

Or they are planning another attempt.

[Tamina]

Russia telling Ecowas (Economic Community of West African States) not to send in their military.

What's Russia going to do, send Wagner and attack the entire West Africa? They're bluffing as usual, how many times did Russia threaten Western countries? Perhaps the only card the Russians have left to play is to cut the supply of food to Africa.

They are going to destabalize the region. If the russian propaganda in German social media is anything to go by then they want to cut of Europe from power supplies. Because that is the argument you hear everywhere in the comments now, about poor African countries being "exploitet" by Europe.

[Warenwolf]

Russian patrol boat fires warning shots at Palau flagged ship and boards it for inspection. While Palau flagged, the freighter "Sukru Okan" may be in reality a Turkish owned ship.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/08/13/rus ... -black-sea

[clakclak]

Russia telling Ecowas (Economic Community of West African States) not to send in their military.

What's Russia going to do, send Wagner and attack the entire West Africa? They're bluffing as usual, how many times did Russia threaten Western countries? Perhaps the only card the Russians have left to play is to cut the supply of food to Africa.

They are going to destabalize the region. If the russian propaganda in German social media is anything to go by then they want to cut of Europe from power supplies. Because that is the argument you hear everywhere in the comments now, about poor African countries being "exploitet" by Europe.

I mean African countries ARE being exploited by European countries. It is just that Russia does not really care about stopping exploitation or even investigating it, they just use it as a talking point. But because the core argument, Europe is exploiting African countries, is true it, sadly, gives their arguments the appearance of legitimacy. I remember sitting in Single Quarters Katutura and talking to a guy I had never met before who lived in Katutura. He told me that in his opinion Namibia's path towards a better future was playing China, America and the EU but never allowing any of the three to get the upper hand.


Back on topic though, I remember that during the Bundestagsdebatte on the AfDs "peace proposal" for Ukraine earlier this year there was a pretty good speech given by Ralf Stegner (SPD) which I'll title the "enemies of Democracy" speech. If anyone is interested all speeches given that day can be found here. Another speaker summed the issue with the AfD up rather nicely although I am not sure who the speaker was or the exact quote but it was something along the lines of: "[points at AfD members who visited Putin affiliated News Show in which a presenter called for the execution of Germany's foreign minister] Fifth Column allways sits row six (Fünfte Kolone sitzt immer Reihe sechs)."

[mr.WHO]

I mean African countries ARE being exploited by European countries. It is just that Russia does not really care about stopping exploitation or even investigating it, they just use it as a talking point. But because the core argument, Europe is exploiting African countries, is true it, sadly, gives their arguments the appearance of legitimacy. I remember sitting in Single Quarters Katutura and talking to a guy I had never met before who lived in Katutura. He told me that in his opinion Namibia's path towards a better future was playing China, America and the EU but never allowing any of the three to get the upper hand.

Please do not dump a french little post-colonial empire onto entire Europe.
Pretty much nobody other than France give a damn about that part of Africa.

[clakclak]

I mean African countries ARE being exploited by European countries. It is just that Russia does not really care about stopping exploitation or even investigating it, they just use it as a talking point. But because the core argument, Europe is exploiting African countries, is true it, sadly, gives their arguments the appearance of legitimacy. I remember sitting in Single Quarters Katutura and talking to a guy I had never met before who lived in Katutura. He told me that in his opinion Namibia's path towards a better future was playing China, America and the EU but never allowing any of the three to get the upper hand.

Please do not dump a french little post-colonial empire onto entire Europe.
Pretty much nobody other than France give a damn about that part of Africa.

Exactly and that is why German news for weeks have been full of our soldiers getting stuck in our Airbase in Niger after the Coup there because we wanted to withdraw them from Mali, where they were originally stationed, via Niger but now we have to move them through another country to get them back to Germany. If really all of Europe would not give a shit then Germany would not have soldiers stationed in Mali and an Air base in Niger.