Russia-Ukraine War

[Vertigo 7]

Yeah right . And I bet that glorious Russian army has not yet managed to storm a small industrial complex because it wants to spare civilian lives?

Kremlin propaganda is getting predictable.

All those clustered munitions that have been raining down on the plant were only going to kill soldiers, too.

[Warenwolf]

Amazing how bs like that appears shortly after Russia bombed yet another school killing at least 60 civilians. What a pitiful country Russia has become.

Become? This was 3 years ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... robot-suit

https://www.rferl.org/a/confession-bela ... 43702.html

[Vertigo 7]

Amazing how bs like that appears shortly after Russia bombed yet another school killing at least 60 civilians. What a pitiful country Russia has become.

Become? This was 3 years ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... robot-suit

https://www.rferl.org/a/confession-bela ... 43702.html

lol sure sure, I was speaking in the larger sense. They've had decades to right the ship, but they seem to keep getting worse.

[V2200]

Amazing how bs like that appears shortly after Russia bombed yet another school killing at least 60 civilians. What a pitiful country Russia has become.

There were bearded children with machine guns.

Yeah right . And I bet that glorious Russian army has not yet managed to storm a small industrial complex because it wants to spare civilian lives?

Kremlin propaganda is getting predictable.

Are you suggesting let poison gas? Yes, it would be the best decision from a tactical point of view.

[Vertigo 7]

Russian soldiers turn to cannibalism, feasting on their dead fellows, as the Russian military cannot supply food to troops deep in Ukraine.

I can make stuff up too! I'm practically Russian now!

[V2200]

Russian soldiers turn to cannibalism, feasting on their dead fellows, as the Russian military cannot supply food to troops deep in Ukraine.

I can make stuff up too! I'm practically Russian now!

You are here all the time doing just that.

[Vertigo 7]

Yep, you're right. Russia has built a reputation for honesty and trustworthiness over decades and the rest of the world is just a big ol' bunch of liars. How could I have missed that? I feel so foolish. Thank you for appearing before us all to spread the truth and being such a champion of truth. I don't know how we can survive without you!

[Alan Phipps]

Last time of warning. Comment on the topic and post content and not the posters. People who ignore this will lose posting rights, for a while at least.

[Warenwolf]

Are you suggesting let poison gas? Yes, it would be the best decision from a tactical point of view.

A repeat of Moscow theater hostage taking? Although I suspect that op is being presented as success in Russia these days...

I suggest focusing on improving the life in Russia, getting rid of corruption, making "rule of the law" rule and not exception and moving economy from exploitation of natural resources into modern industrial society so we may see finally "Made in Russia" product. And finally, but most importantly, getting rid of oligarchs.

Then this joke of invasion would not be needed or perhaps entirely avoidable too. Also you could then afford to train soldiers in urban fighting. You know, bombing urban areas before sending in infantry is something Chuikov would warn against, 80 years ago. But to know that, you need proper schools.

What nationalists like you (i hope mods don't view this as insult) don't realize, is that wars are won or lost long before shooting starts.

[notaterran]

Apparently there won't be an announcement of a big mobilization, that's good news for neighboring countries because it means that the war will stay localized in Ukraine. It also means that in absence of a major offensive this war will drag on and on. Is Russia looking at 30K - 40K dead soldiers by the end of the summer? Can Russia afford many years of fighting like in Afghanistan?

[mr.WHO]

Apparently there won't be an announcement of a big mobilization, that's good news for neighboring countries because it means that the war will stay localized in Ukraine. It also means that in absence of a major offensive this war will drag on and on. Is Russia looking at 30K - 40K dead soldiers by the end of the summer? Can Russia afford many years of fighting like in Afghanistan?

Still it might be Putin din't had balls to spoil the "holiday", so he could still annouce mobilisation in a few days.
Even then, it will take at least several months to train troops into anything useful in battle, whihc will not only take them from the economy, but will add drain to it (if Russia has logistic problems with feeding current 150k troops, then good luch trying to feed additional 500k).

By that time Ukraine reserves will be trained and equipped well with NATO stuff, so the escalation doesn't change anything - it will be the same stalemate.

The protracted conflict will ruin both countries, bus as Ukraine is smaller, it will be much easier and faster to rebuild with Western support (and possibly using Russia seized assets to pay it off).

I think Russia lost the only real chance to decisively win this war, if they would fully mobilized like month or two ago to start Summer offensive (when the soil hardens and allow to roll heavy stuff in wide front).

[Falcrack]

Apparently there won't be an announcement of a big mobilization, that's good news for neighboring countries because it means that the war will stay localized in Ukraine. It also means that in absence of a major offensive this war will drag on and on. Is Russia looking at 30K - 40K dead soldiers by the end of the summer? Can Russia afford many years of fighting like in Afghanistan?

Still it might be Putin din't had balls to spoil the "holiday", so he could still annouce mobilisation in a few days.
Even then, it will take at least several months to train troops into anything useful in battle, whihc will not only take them from the economy, but will add drain to it (if Russia has logistic problems with feeding current 150k troops, then good luch trying to feed additional 500k).

By that time Ukraine reserves will be trained and equipped well with NATO stuff, so the escalation doesn't change anything - it will be the same stalemate.

The protracted conflict will ruin both countries, bus as Ukraine is smaller, it will be much easier and faster to rebuild with Western support (and possibly using Russia seized assets to pay it off).

I think Russia lost the only real chance to decisively win this war, if they would fully mobilized like month or two ago to start Summer offensive (when the soil hardens and allow to roll heavy stuff in wide front).

Russia announcing a full mobilization I think would have the effect of greatly accelerating both the supply and types of Western weapons sent to Ukraine. I think the US will not back down in its support until Ukraine has achieved something resembling a victory over Russia, and escalation by Russia would be met by escalations from the West.

[fiksal]

Are you suggesting let poison gas? Yes, it would be the best decision from a tactical point of view.

my suggestion is less blood thirsty, and will save countless of lives.

full unconditional surrender

by Russia.


I of course don't mean for Kremlin to surrender. I mean for someone to make them, and offer Kremlin as part of this

[JSDD]

Apparently there won't be an announcement of a big mobilization, that's good news for neighboring countries because it means that the war will stay localized in Ukraine. It also means that in absence of a major offensive this war will drag on and on. Is Russia looking at 30K - 40K dead soldiers by the end of the summer? Can Russia afford many years of fighting like in Afghanistan?

Still it might be Putin din't had balls to spoil the "holiday", so he could still annouce mobilisation in a few days.
Even then, it will take at least several months to train troops into anything useful in battle, whihc will not only take them from the economy, but will add drain to it (if Russia has logistic problems with feeding current 150k troops, then good luch trying to feed additional 500k).

the only thing they'd have to organize is the transport / distribution of food and so on, everything else is already cared for
(it just doesnt matter if a guy sits at home / at work and is being fed by russian society OR if that guy sits on a tree in ukraine fighting for russia ... and is being fed ^^)
(except if they wanna let peasants fight in ukraine as "reservists")

By that time Ukraine reserves will be trained and equipped well with NATO stuff, so the escalation doesn't change anything - it will be the same stalemate.

// regarding russia mobilizing its reserves
with about 200K troops, russia already has occupied about 10% of the country AND is on the offensive
scale that up by a factor of 10 (couse thats how many reservists russia already has), and you'd have ...

• almost complete territory of ukraine being occupied
• western border closed completely (southern / northern / eastern is already closed!)
• russian offensives in every inch of ukraine
• ukrainian economy would collapse in about a month (they are already living on western money / deliveries)
• but many more casualties on both sides in lesser time

by the way, reservists are already trained, and refresh their skills anually or so ... thats at least, what wikipedia says

The protracted conflict will ruin both countries, bus as Ukraine is smaller, it will be much easier and faster to rebuild with Western support (and possibly using Russia seized assets to pay it off).

assuming these 2 million russian reservists are joining, russian economy would loose just 2 million out of about 70 million working force (2.8%)
in russia, there is NO fighting at all, infrastructure works as good as it has always worked ... ukrainian infrastructure is already destroyed (almost completely)
western support would never reach that country, and we would see kind of an apocalypse in ukraine (people starving by the millions)

regarding those frozen assets, i doubt that countries other that US / UK / australia / canada dare to take that "earned money" away from the russian people
foutunately, russians have reduced recently a huge amount of that "wealth" in western countries and bought gold in hugh amounts instead (which is already on russian soil)
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves
https://www.dw.com/en/russias-gold-rush/av-61477548

I think Russia lost the only real chance to decisively win this war, if they would fully mobilized like month or two ago to start Summer offensive (when the soil hardens and allow to roll heavy stuff in wide front).

of course the war would be over by now if russia had mobilized all of its troops by the start of the war
i still think that if they manage to break through and encircle the ukrainians in the donbas area, then its just a matter of time that russians troops gain
control over half of ukraine (up to the dniepro river)

[burger1]

Russias been utilizing 180,000 soldiers + 20,000 chechens (might have killed a lot of Russians also, bad for both sides) + 3000+ mercenaries + 44,000 dpr+lpr + people in Donesk being forced to fight + recruits from rural Russia + ~65,0000 conscripts + navy + airforce + special units + military brought in from all over the world. So 312,000 + a notable amount.

Russia's offensive is currently failing. Some strategic points might fall soon.

Ukraines infrastructure is largely still intact.

Ukraines still getting weapon shipments and new equipment and training. Eventually they might get cruise missile and other longer ranged weapons. Tens of billions more in funding has been approved recently. Ukraine still doesn't have enough weapons for everyone to fight. Ukraine won't run out of people who will fight. Probably a bare minimum of 10M+ people plus all the people from outside Ukraine which is a lot more than the 20,000 in the International Legion. US weapon production is being ramped up and maybe other countries also while Russia's is either stopped or crippled.

Not sure how Russia's equipment situation is. No more tanks? What about antiaircraft stuff (very expensive and might not be replaceable) ? Ships in the black sea (Turkey can stop new ships being brought in)? APC's seem like a lot got destroyed? If they are just going to depend on people fighting then they will get slaughtered. It looks like this might be the case.

There's also activity going on behind the scene to do other stuff which might greatly hurt Russia. Not talking about embargoes and sanctions and other relatively friendlier stuff.

The oil embargoes and stuff still haven't started.

Canada, US and other countries haven't started using seized assets to fund Ukraine much yet.

[mr.WHO]

assuming these 2 million russian reservists are joining, russian economy would loose just 2 million out of about 70 million working force (2.8%)
in russia, there is NO fighting at all, infrastructure works as good as it has always worked ... ukrainian infrastructure is already destroyed (almost completely)
western support would never reach that country, and we would see kind of an apocalypse in ukraine (people starving by the millions)

That's the problem for Russia - what works well in "small exercise" do not scale well up. Having 10x times more soldier doesn't mean 10 times more capabilities. It's true even for hyper efficient US forces. It's even more clusterf*ck, if all you increase is untrained conscripts - good luck trying to move 2 milion soldiers, their equipment and supplies through bottleneck of Ukrainian roads.
Even in summer, attacking in wide front with conscripts is a recipe for massacre.

2 milion out of 70 milion working force (which I assume 30 milion are men, so it's 5.6%) looks good on paper, if not that Russia population is among ones which age the fastest and fertility rate dropped the lowest.
Those maimed and broke-ass men finding a woman or setting a family - veterans are a heavy burden even in US, so good luck trying to support them under sanctions.

During WW2 US was able to supply 4 massive, multi-milion people fronts at the other side of the globe (Africa, UK/Europe, Pacific, USSR).
Modern day Russia is unable to properly supply "special operation" barelly 100 km from it's border.

[Vertigo 7]

Russian Oligarch Alexander Subbotin was found dead "in the basement of a shaman that performs Jamaican Voodoo" in Mytishchi, just north-east of Moscow after an alcohol binge seeking a cure for a hangover from poison toads. I can't... lol I mean.. really?! lol

Of course, he's the latest of a growing list of Oligarchs that have had "unfortunate accident" since Russia's war with Ukraine started.

Sergey Protosenya found dead in Spain in April. His wife and daughter found dead in their beds with apparent stab wounds and Sergey hung himself.

The day prior, Vladislav Avaev, former VP of Gazprombank, found dead in his apartment in Moscow, along with his wife and daughter, in yet another "murder suicide".

In March, Vasily Melnikov, found dead in his apartment along with his wife and two sons in... wouldn't you know it, another "murder suicide".

And, Alexander Tyulyakov, Gazprom's Deputy General Director of the Unified Settlement Center for Corporate Security found dead in a cottage near St. Petersburg in Feb.

[mr.WHO]

Aparently Sri Lanka is a first country that goes bankrupt due to price hike from war in Ukraine.

According to UN there is about 107 countries that wil be hit harder and harder the longer the war will continue.
Argentina and Turkey are on the brink as well.
Tunisia, Egypt and Pakistan are starting to feel the ripples in the economy.


Good job Russia.

[burger1]

daily stats

May 9, 2022

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 42/photo/1

May 10, 2022

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 25/photo/1

[mr.WHO]

Rheinmetall declared they are able to send Marders to Ukraine in 3 weeks.

Polish, Czech, Slovak and other ex-soviet vechicles already seen fighting in Donbas, so it seems Russia failed to strike the supply lines.

I've been watching an interview with Polish general, who described how such supply convoys are made and that is silly for Russia, to even try to destroy them (dispersion to multiple mini-convoys, multiple different transportation methods, dummy convoys full of balloon fake vechicles) - the risk and cost is significant and the results, even if they mannage to hit some of them, are minimal.