Russia-Ukraine War

[fiksal]

indeed if they go, they will go in incognito. I however thought crossing the border as one big force is not out of character either. I can't imagine 5000 armed thugs not be noticable.

they will also go in believing their own propaganda that they'll be met as liberators of Russians and everyone else from the oppressive (insert any noun here).

they will hope to meet up with any fascist-like local group


as for denying, as you may recall Crimea was taken by unmarked men, who to no one's surprise, were from the Russian regular army. Kremlin back then denied everything.


I am not saying this is 100% going to happen, but if Putin were to test NATO further, as he is not only urged to do by others, but is part of his plan, - that'd be it.

[clakclak]

The won't roll in gun blazing and carrying big Wagner banner.

The problem is that they will be without uniforms and mixed with migrants.

Imagine all the useful idiots and clickbait media crying about shooting at poor refugees.

The stupid plan of acting like a refugee to then commit terror attacks already failed when a single member of Germany's far right attempted it. I don't see it working with even more people.


While I would not put it beyond Wagner to try something this stupid, I will say that I find it far more likely that this is just your typical PiS fear mongering against refugees.


Edit: Deleted due to inconsistentency.

[chew-ie]

The won't roll in gun blazing and carrying big Wagner banner.

The problem is that they will be without uniforms and mixed with migrants.

Imagine all the useful idiots and clickbait media crying about shooting at poor refugees.

The stupid plan of acting like a refugee to then commit terror attacks already failed when a single member of Germany's far right attempted it. I don't see it working with even more people.

Almost forgot about that chap. Almost...

[Warenwolf]

While I would not put it beyond Wagner to try something this stupid, I will say that I find it far more likely that this is just your typical PiS fear mongering against refugees.

Kinda have to agree although I also view actions from Belarus equally as a part of a smokescreen.
Far easier targets for hybrid warfare or just false flag operations are Lithuania and Latvia due to their Russian minorities that have members that for various reasons been very nostalgic about SSSR times and look up to Moscow. Far easier to create problems in those two countries than in a country like Poland.

[mr.WHO]

Not wishing bad for fellow Baltics, but I hope this is the case.

Poland has very little to no experience with terrorism.
I doubt Iraq/Afganistan "call in A-10 and wait for brrrrrrttt" would have any use here.

[notaterran]

Grain deal

Russia: We will destroy you!
Cargo ships: We will ignore you!

Awesome

@source tagesschau.de / german state media Trotz russischer Drohungen Schiffe ignorieren Seeblockade (Despite russian threat - ships ignore sea blockade)

The Russians have been acting as if they own Ukraine and the Black Sea, good to see more countries calling Russia's bluff.

Twenty-two days after Moscow canceled a deal with Kyiv—which had allowed Ukraine safely to export tens of millions of tons of grain—and then threatened to halt maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports, the world has called the Russians’ bluff.

[...]

Overhead, no fewer than four NATO warplanes patrolled: a U.S. Navy P-8 patrol plane, a U.S. Army Challenger with a surface-scanning radar, a U.S. Air Force RQ-4 drone and an E-3 early-warning plane from NATO. None of the planes routinely carries weapons, but NATO fighters—including Italian Eurofighters and Romanian F-16s—were nearby in Romania.

Link

[notaterran]

Russia has made so many stupid mistakes (the biggest one is invading Ukraine), what would happen if the Russians sink a cargo ship (either directly or with a sea mine)?

[mr.WHO]

Russia has made so many stupid mistakes (the biggest one is invading Ukraine), what would happen if the Russians sink a cargo ship (either directly or with a sea mine)?

Wouldn't this be an act of piracy?
Basically would give everybody a "shoot on sight" reason against all Russian navy ships.

Albeit with mines, it would be probably very hard to prove the ownership.

[Falcrack]

Russia has made so many stupid mistakes (the biggest one is invading Ukraine), what would happen if the Russians sink a cargo ship (either directly or with a sea mine)?

Wouldn't this be an act of piracy?
Basically would give everybody a "shoot on sight" reason against all Russian navy ships.

Albeit with mines, it would be probably very hard to prove the ownership.

That's why the cargo ships need surface ship escorts. If Russia tried to torpedo a cargo ship and claim it was a mine, an escorting ship could provide sonar evidence otherwise.

[felter]

Right now Turkey is still escorting cargo ships to and from Ukraine, and they told Russia they will defend those ships, so I cannot see Russia attacking any cargo ships anytime soon.

[clakclak]

[...]
Poland has very little to no experience with terrorism.
I doubt Iraq/Afganistan "call in A-10 and wait for brrrrrrttt" would have any use here.

That is actually an interesting point I never thought about. Aren't polish special police and military units often training with units from other European countries like France that have a lot of experience when it comes to dealing with terrorism? Granted a bunch of muppets with AKs are probably a lot different to a well coordinated attack by 100+ trained and battle tested soldiers, but in that case what country is prepared to rapidly deal with something like that? In Germany this would fall to police units like the GSG 9, SEKs and BFE+ probably with heavy support from various other police units as well as the army. I am sure Poland's response would look very similar or is there something that would make the situation different?

[Warenwolf]

Russia has made so many stupid mistakes (the biggest one is invading Ukraine), what would happen if the Russians sink a cargo ship (either directly or with a sea mine)?

Attacking foreign flagged ship is an act of war.
On other hand if they mine the Ukrainian black sea ports and inform the international community that the ports have been mined the things are bit less clear cut. Sure Kremlin would be condemned but nobody could claim that they have been directly attacked.

The thing is that Kremlin has no need to sink foreign ships - they only need to reduce its flow sufficiently. Threat of a naval mine would do that. So would the destruction of loading equipment and storage facilities in Ukrainian ports which Kremlin has been targeting lately.

[fiksal]

does it mean say Turkey can then mine all Russian ports and that not be a declaration of war? Turkey would inform Russia of course

[mr.WHO]

That is actually an interesting point I never thought about. Aren't polish special police and military units often training with units from other European countries like France that have a lot of experience when it comes to dealing with terrorism? Granted a bunch of muppets with AKs are probably a lot different to a well coordinated attack by 100+ trained and battle tested soldiers, but in that case what country is prepared to rapidly deal with something like that? In Germany this would fall to police units like the GSG 9, SEKs and BFE+ probably with heavy support from various other police units as well as the army. I am sure Poland's response would look very similar or is there something that would make the situation different?

Training, yes, but no amount of training will be enough until live experience check, if people and procedures work well or not.
The only unit with real counter-terrorism experience is GROM, but it's military, not police, so it makes more complicated to use it at home.

[Warenwolf]

does it mean say Turkey can then mine all Russian ports and that not be a declaration of war? Turkey would inform Russia of course

Don't see what your point was to be honest.
Mining nominally foreign territorial waters of a nation you are not in war with is a hostile action. Mining already contested waters and informing neutral parties is kinda different thing.
It all boils down to how much political flak Kremlin is willing to take - you can be in the clear according to international agreements but the nation that had their freighter sunk (even if it is Panama registered) and dead sailors, typically from 3rd world countries these days, will be furious.

[fiksal]

does it mean say Turkey can then mine all Russian ports and that not be a declaration of war? Turkey would inform Russia of course

Don't see what your point was to be honest.
Mining nominally foreign territorial waters of a nation you are not in war with is a hostile action. Mining already contested waters and informing neutral parties is kinda different thing.
It all boils down to how much political flak Kremlin is willing to take - you can be in the clear according to international agreements but the nation that had their freighter sunk (even if it is Panama registered) and dead sailors, typically from 3rd world countries these days, will be furious.

No real point,
I am not following the finer details of this.

If a country mines a port of another country and a third party ship blows up, that's not act of war?

Considering that countries 1 and 2 are not technically at war. Are waters contested either?

[felter]

There is one word that isn't being taken into account, and that is "how".

Sea mines are not the same as land mines, where in a land mine you dig a hole and plant the mine or just drop it onto the ground, with a sea mine you have to affix that to the sea bed, if you were to just throw it over board the mine in itself would just float away and there is no way of knowing exactly where that mine would float off to, and remember mines are indiscriminate they will blow up and destroy anything they don't go, OH that's a Russian ship, so I will not destroy it.

Then you also have to have a more specialized ship to deploy said mines, and I doubt Russia has such a ship in the Black Sea and Turkey, who control all ships entering and leaving as you have to pass through their water to get there, are refusing entry to all naval ships. I suppose they could jury-rig some kind of vessel to do the job.

Which leads onto the next problem, if they were to go about dropping mines into Ukrainian waters, do you think Ukraine is going to just sit back and watch, to allow them to do it. Right now, Russia's Black Sea fleet hardly leaves the harbour this is because when ever they do they get attacked and as I've already mentioned they cannot get any new naval ships into the Black Sea as Turkey won't allow it, so they cannot afford to risk their ships willy-nilly.

So just how would Russia go about mining the Ukrainian waters?

[Falcrack]

So just how would Russia go about mining the Ukrainian waters?

Submarines?

[felter]

I don't think they have a submarine capable of doing this in the Black Sea, so how would they get the submarine into the Black Sea to do it, seeing as Turkey aren't about to allow one through their waters anytime soon. I suppose they could maybe drag one over land, but submarines I would image are pretty delicate and pretty darn heavy to boot, so that would not be an easy task.

[Alan Phipps]

The identified 'escaped' naval mines from the area were of the near-surface bottom-tethered type used by both sides, but there are also air-delivered and patrol boat-dropped naval mines in their inventories that sit entirely on the bottom and activate a directed effect warhead or even a guided submunition on detecting a selectable target approach. These may be smaller and less powerful than the traditional horned floating tethered mine but, for such as civilian grain ships, just a damaging mine attack might be enough to disrupt the trade runs and put off insurers.